Stovepiping

推測だけで突っ走る武漢ラボからのウイルス漏洩説を諸報道からメタ総括したファクトだけの好記事　バイデンが言う通り確実なことは何もない。中国が調査に非協力的なことは隠ぺいを示唆するものではない。実際に何もなかったイラクの大量破壊兵器騒動と酷似。　　https://t.co/7HZL0IGwsD

— Spica (@Kelangdbn) May 27, 2021

 

 That sounds familiar …

It does indeed. Many aspects of Wuhan lab leak story have echoes of the search for WMD in the run up to the Iraq war in 2003 which included efforts to “stove pipe” intelligence analysis to fit the operating theory.

Then as now, experts (then weapons inspectors also under the aegis of a UN body) were sent into a highly obstructive environment amid a highly politicised debate. Leaks of dubious intelligence – some of it provided by third party countries like the infamous Curveball claims – were reported without sufficient scepticism and expert warnings sidelined.

Stovepiping って？

暖炉につながっている細い管か？

 

Stovepiping is a term of art in intelligence cycle management and intelligence analysis, which prevents proper analysis by preventing objective analysts from drawing conclusions based on all relevant data. It has acquired a broader meaning of manipulating information to prevent cross-checking that might not support a prejudgment.

The traditional meaning keeps the output of different collection systems separated from one another.

Second, a newer usage of stovepiping is bypassing the regular analysis of raw intelligence, and sending only raw intelligence that supports a particular position to the highest national leadership.

　いくつかの機関が連絡なしに作業をすすめること、みたいな意味で使われていたが、ある機関、エージェントが他の機関による情報の精査・吟味なしに首長に直接こっそりと特定の情報を提供して、特定の政策決定するように画策する、みたいな意味で使われるようになったてことだろうなあ。