2022年2月28日月曜日

How the Crisis in Ukraine May End

spotify 

 How the Crisis in Ukraine May End


How the Crisis in Ukraine May End

We’re still looking at a range of possibilities, including de-escalation and a great-power conflict.


By Derek Thompson



There are now five ways that the aggression in Ukraine can end, according to Paul Poast, a professor of foreign policy and war at the University of Chicago. They are: a disastrous quagmire or retreat for Russia; violent regime change in Kyiv; the full conquest of Ukraine; the beginning of a new Russian empire; or a chaotic stumble into something like World War III.

Given the size and scale of this invasion, coupled with the rhetoric, I really do think that his objective is some form of annexation, or full conquest of Ukraine. That is the scenario he is most seeking out now. When I combine that with an analysis of Russia’s operational ease, I think the most reasonable thing that we could be expecting right now is regime change in Kyiv.

operational ease -conducts of the military campaign

Telling on yourself

 

いまいちしっくりこなかったけど、


「罪を告白しているようなものだ」みたいな感じかなあ。

希望的観測?

池田信夫 Retweeted

 

木村太郎氏「10日続けばロシア破産」ウクライナ側の情報紹介 「死亡ロシア兵帰還」がカギ 2/27(日
さらにウクライナ国防総省の試算として「ロシアは1日に150億ドルの戦費を使っている。10日続くと戦費がなくなっちゃうだろうと。だから10日頑張りゃいいんだと言い出している。そうしたらロシアは完全に破産しちゃうし、弾薬もなくなっちゃうと言っている」と紹介した。
それは希望的観測ってやつじゃ?


"They're Christians, they're white. They're very similar [to us]" - explaining why Poland is accepting refugees.

 



[Thread] The most racist Ukraine coverage on TV News. 1. The BBC - “It’s very emotional for me because I see European people with blue eyes and blonde hair being killed” - Ukraine’s Deputy Chief Prosecutor, David Sakvarelidze


2. CBS News "This isn't Iraq or Afghanistan...This is a relatively civilized, relatively European city" - CBS foreign correspondent Charlie D’Agata

3. Al-Jazeera

"What's compelling is looking at them, the way they are dressed. These are prosperous, middle-class people. These are not obviously refugees trying to get away from the Middle East...or North Africa. They look like any European family that you'd live next door to."



4. BFM TV (France)

"We are in the 21st century, we are in a European city and we have cruise missile fire as though we were in Iraq or Afghanistan, can you imagine!?”



5. The Daily Telegraph

This time, war is wrong because the people look like us and have Instagram and Netflix accounts. It's not in a poor, remote country any more. - Daniel Hannan

6. ITV (UK)

"The unthinkable has happened...This is not a developing, third world nation; this is Europe!"


7. BFM TV (France) (again)

"It's an important question. We’re not talking here about Syrians fleeing...We're talking about Europeans."

8. If you speak French, sample from the racism buffet on offer.

9. "To put it bluntly, these are not refugees from Syria, these are refugees from Ukraine...They're Christians, they're white. They're very similar [to us]" - explaining why Poland is accepting refugees.


なっ!やっぱりそうだろう? 


2022年2月28日月曜日

黒人は国境を超えることを許されないということかね?と


Western journalists assume non-Europeans are barbaric and warmongers, and not worth helping?


シリアやチェンチェンについてこれほど大きな反対デモが起きなかったのはなぜ?





 


最悪の事態を想定して、準備

kazukazu88 Retweeted The worst-case scenario 最悪の事態を想定して、準備しておくってのは大切だよなああ。 

 日本は大丈夫か?

岸田首相 原発再稼働決断を!

kazukazu88 Retweeted

 

ロシアの弱体化


これは全くそのとおりだね。

本来はロシアを引き入れて中国と対抗すべきだった。こうなったからには、ロシアを徹底的に弱体化して中国の手助けにならないようにしておく。




”This war has begun badly for Russia and is likely to end badly.”

 mozu Retweeted

In my previous post I explained why I thought that this war had begun badly for Russia and was likely to end badly.

I also warned that the coming days would be rougher and tougher, and so sadly it is proving,

ロシアにとってこの戦争ははじめも悪かったが、終わりも悪い。

サイバー攻撃の不足、稚拙な情報戦、制空権奪取の遅滞 脆弱な供給網などによりスパッと首都を陥落して、大統領の首をすげかえらねかったことより、市街での砲弾戦に頼ることになり、人的被害は甚大になる。


What he[Zelensky]cannot do is to deny Ukraine’s right to exist as an independent state following its own path. Putin’s people claim that is not in doubt. The problem, they claim, is that the wrong people are in charge. If so presumably they would have no difficulty with free elections under international supervision. Putin can be encouraged to put his theories about where the sympathies of the ordinary people of Ukraine lie to the test.

 ゼレンスキーはウクライナの自主・存続を願い、プーチン派は、それはいいが指導者がまずい、と。だったら、国際機関監視のもと選挙することで、国民が誰を支持しているかわかるから、それが落とし所じゃないか・・・なんてうまい具合にはいかないじゃないかなああ・・・ロシアだって、選挙すれば、ゼレンスキー再選されることはわかっているだろう? プーチンは自分の面目にかけても現大統領を消しにかかるのではないか?しかし、世界的英雄になったゼレンスキーを殺れば、プーチンに対する世界的圧力はより強力になる。

China Russia and North Korea are working together against the U.S.

 習近平氏、米欧制裁巡り「ロシア支援」指示…軍事侵攻には態度表明せず

2022/02/28


Published February 25, 2022 11:30am EST

China says it 'supports' Russia amid Ukraine invasion, backs Putin's claim he's ready for negotiations


North Korea’s Kim Jong-un congratulates China on Beijing Olympics, says together they will frustrate US threats

Reuters

Published: 6:24am, 22 Feb, 2022

Trump Pentagon aide rips Biden for US sharing Russia intel with China

 Trump Pentagon aide rips Biden for US sharing Russia intel with China

 Elizabeth Elkind, 

The fact that the commander-in-chief wouldn't answer that question that no one is covering, leads me to believe that he took classified intelligence -- and the reporting is accurate now from multiple sources -- and handed it over to our world's biggest enemy, US's biggest enemy, his biggest enemy, China,' Patel said on Sunday.


ロシアの動きを止めてもらおうとして、アメリカが中国に情報を提供していたことについて、アメリカ最大の敵に機密情報を与えていたとは阿呆か、と。 

・・・・普通そう考えるわなああ。

いくら米国のポチでもこれ擁護しちゃったらまずいべ?


2022年2月26日土曜日

”China and Russia appear stronger than at any time since the Cold War”


2021年8月27日金曜日

“Basically, they just put all those Afghans on a kill list,”





Russian President Vladimir Putin will let his men die as Russia is prepared to lose up to 50,000 troops in the war against Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin will let his men die as Russia is prepared to lose up to 50,000 troops in the war against Ukraine, reports said, indicating that the tension will only escalate

According to the Ukrainian military, they have killed over 3,000 Russian soldiers and captured 200.

アメリカ政府の試算によると、

国連では、

ウクライナ難民、「最大400万人受け入れ計画」
ウクライナ侵攻
2022年2月26日

黒人は国境を超えることを許されないということかね?と

 

ウクライナ人はウクライナにいると危険で黒人は安全だ、とでもいうのだろうか?

"Nuclear allies are likely to become more independent of their patrons "

 

ニュークリア・シェアリング 出典: フリー百科事典
現在ニュークリアシェアリングを受けている国はベルギー・ドイツ・イタリア・オランダ・トルコである
1)ドイツイタリアトルコも共有しているわけで、別に経済制裁されないんじゃない? 


とすれば、

 2)別に要らないんじゃない?

仮に戦略核開発して制裁があったとしても

Sanctioning Country/Entity (s)PeriodSummary
Canada Canada1974Following 1974 nuclear tests Canada sanctioned nuclear expertise and equipment support.[5]
Multiple countriesUnited States United States1998–1999US imposes sanctions as required by law following nuclear tests.[6] Sanctions imposed by the United States were weakened through exceptions and lifted within a year.[7]
Japan Japan1998–2001Sanctions including the stoppage of loan aid.[8][9][10]
~12 countriesAround 14 countries adopted some form of individual sanction or another following the 1998 nuclear tests with marginal effect.[11][7] Collective sanctions could not gather the required support.[12]
United States United States1992–2011ISRO sanctioned for sections of its space program.[13][14]
Pakistan Pakistan2019–Sanctions such as closure of airspace for all Indians.[15]
なんとかしのいでいけるかもよ?・・・・そこらへん議論を聞きたいところ。

トランプが日本も核武装しろ、とか言った時「はい」って言っておけばよかったんだよなああ。


Reducing military commitments and letting allies build their own nuclear weapons might save money for the United States. But international relations scholarship suggests that allied proliferation would have broader negative repercussions. Among these would be declining U.S. influence. When nations gain their own military capabilities, they rely less on their allies and become less subject to their sway. And that can undermine a senior partner’s ability to hold its junior allies back from risky military actions.


Recent nonproliferation research underscores this proposition. Mark Bell shows that nuclear allies are likely to become more independent of their patrons and in some cases can develop more assertive foreign policies. And Francis Gavin and Matthew Kroenig show that the fear of declining influence was one reason why most American administrations vigorously opposed the spread of nuclear weapons.


アメリカ が日本などに核武装させない理由の一つはアメリカの影響力が減って、日本がアメリカから独立した意思決定ができるようになってしまうからなわけだね。

核武装についていろいろ欠点があるなら、アメリカをはじめ核武装国がまっさきに放棄すればいいけど、他国を放棄させても自国は絶対放棄しないんだよねええ。WapoやNYTなどリベラル紙もその点は産経新聞なんだよねえええ。

(核武装、核武装の優位)



 


尖閣が中国に侵略されたら・・・・西側諸国で反戦デモしてくれるかも・・・


例えば、尖閣が中国から攻撃を受けたら・・・情報と武器提供はしてくれると思う。

「外国の無人の孤島のためにアメリカの若者の命を危険にさらすことはできない」

「米軍出動したら世界大戦になってしまうし、中国からの核攻撃の危険」とか言って・・・・まあ、声援はしてくれると思う。

あと西側諸国で・・・もしかしたら・・・ひっそりと・・・反戦デモしてくれるかもしれない・・・・日本と中国の違いもわからないまま・・・・とか。

言説が幼稚

 

町山智浩 Retweeted


これは橋下氏の言説が幼稚 

Western journalists assume non-Europeans are barbaric and warmongers, and not worth helping?

 

なっ!
欧米人以外は、非文明的、野蛮で救済に値しない、みたいな感じだろ。
人種差別意識はジャーナリストといいったインテリにも根深くしみついているのかもよ?

”Military expert says Kyiv will likely fall”


Is the West to Blame for Russia's Invasion? (no) - TLDR News 
ミアシャイマーの
について否定的に論じている。

こう動くだろう、というリアリストの議論とこういう動きは正当化できない、というリベラリズムの議論は・・・噛み合わない。

 

Ukraine Invasion: Military expert says Kyiv will likely fall, but Putin may not retain control

It's likely Russian will take control of Kyiv but not without a fight

I think it could be very bloody

キエフは陥落する。抵抗が激しいから犠牲も大きい。しかし、国民の抵抗を制圧し続けるのは難しい。

それとサイバー攻撃について言及。UKは準備万端のようだが、日本が心配。サイバー防衛庁くらいつくっておいてもよい。

 


Sanctions are too little, too late, says Russian chess champion Kasparov





Kudlow: This is the best way to stop Putin

drill, drill, drill export export export.

Sanction the central bank of Russia this along with all the Russian commercial banks 


アメリカで液化石油ガス掘りまくって、輸出しまくれ、そして、ロシアの中央銀行と市中銀行に制裁を加えろ

そうして、ロシアの経済ぶっつぶせ!

"Ukraine Today, Taiwan Tomorrow" - John Avlon On The High Stakes Of Putin's Aggression



 

 Vladimir Putin puts Russian nuclear forces on high alert

ウクライナ、ロシア両国民ともに辛い目に

 

2022年2月27日日曜日

ポーランドのミサイル施設がウクライナ侵攻の重要な鍵だった、と。

SM-3 もIRBMもICBMも・・・それらがなんだかよくわからないほど素人だが、NYTによると 

 On the Edge of a Polish Forest, Where Some of Putin’s Darkest Fears Lurk

A U.S. missile facility in Poland is at the heart of an issue animating the Kremlin’s calculations over whether to go to war against Ukraine.

Feb. 16, 2022

問題のポーランドの施設は今回のウクライナ侵攻の大きな要因になったほど重要な施設みたいだね。


But for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, the military base in Poland, and another in Romania, are evidence of what he sees as the threat posed by NATO’s eastward expansion — and part of his justification for his military encirclement of Ukraine. The Pentagon describes the two sites as defensive and unrelated to Russia, but the Kremlin believes they could be used to shoot down Russian rockets or to fire offensive cruise missiles at Moscow.

The Polish base, the heart of which is a system known as Aegis Ashore, contains sophisticated radars capable of tracking hostile missiles and guiding interceptor rockets to knock them out of the sky. It is also equipped with missile launchers known as MK 41s, which the Russians worry can be easily repurposed to fire offensive missiles like the Tomahawk.

Thomas Graham, who served as senior director for Russia on President George W. Bush’s National Security Council, said Moscow had never believed Washington’s assurances that its missile defense system was aimed at Iran, not Russia.

American assurances that only Iran need worry, however, were undermined during the Trump administration when the president stated that U.S. missile defense systems would “detect and destroy any missile launched against the United States anywhere, anytime, anyplace.

Some independent experts, however, believe that while requiring a rejiggering of software and other changes, the MK 41 launchers installed in Poland and Romania can fire not only defensive interceptors but also offensive missiles.

要するに迎撃用、イラン用と言っているけど、攻撃用、ロシア用に転用できる、だから、ロシアは怒っていたんだ、ということじゃないの? 


シリアやチェンチェンについてこれほど大きな反対デモが起きなかったのはなぜ?

 

mozu Retweeted


気を使っているのか気を使っていないのか素人にはわからんが・・・

シリアやチェチェンについても反対デモはあったにせよ、これほど大きな反対デモが起きなかったのはなぜ?

シリアやチェチェンについては、志位さんとか辻元さんは街頭演説したのかね?
 
いろんな違いがあるだろうけどさ、おれは、白人キリスト教徒の国とそうでない場合との違いに注目しちゃうんだよなああ。

真偽は不明

 

これは、

 

ロシア側もそう言っていた。
プーチンが嘘ばっかつくので、ロシア側の発表は眉唾だが、真相はもっと後になってみないとわからんだろうね。

核兵器シェアリングの核兵器は「目の前に迫って来た敵の侵攻部隊に対して使用される兵器」というだけ

核兵器シェアリングへの誤解と幻想 JSF軍事/生き物ライター 2018/12/20(木) 23:40 
射程の短い戦術用途の核兵器であり、目の前に迫って来た敵の侵攻部隊に対して使用される兵器です


なるほど。


じゃあ、不要だね。 

声の力、世論の力だけでは侵略には勝てない。

 suzuky Retweeted

???

ニュークリア・シェアリング

出典: フリー百科事典

 安倍ちゃんの言っていることはまともでしょ?
 プーチン擁護なんてしていない。リアリズムの観点からは自国の周囲に緩衝地帯をおきたい。実際、アメリカでも中国でもやっており、緩衝地帯が敵に侵食されるときは、緊張がたかまり、武力を使っても緩衝地帯を守ろうとするということはあり得る。モンロードクトリン、キューバ危機、ビックスワン事件などそうした前提がないと理解できない。しかし、アメリカにせよ、ロシアにせよ、武力で主権国家を攻撃したらそこでアウト。


 共産党だって力を合わせましょう、っていっているじゃん。それはそれで大事。ただ、声の力、世論の力だけでは侵略には勝てない。今回の事件はそれを証明したわけだ。

 ロシアや北朝鮮、中国のような力が他国を侵略したとき・・・・というより、侵略をためらうような力についてなにが必要がタブーなしに議論しましょう、ということだろう?
 
 力の論理をもう少し理解しないと。




小野寺五典元防衛大臣 「今のアメリカの姿勢というのは少し心配・・・.口先ではいうけども・・・」と

 

 

 「この問題は必ず日本に影響する。自国は自国で守るというスタンスがなければ、日本もウクライナと同じようなことになる」と警告した。 小野寺氏は、バイデン米大統領がロシアの軍事侵攻があっても、ウクライナ国内にとどまる米国民の退避のために米軍を派遣する考えのないことを早々に表明したことに触れ、「米国の姿勢が少し心配だ」と述べた。

「トランプ大統領なら、米国の軍事アセットを周辺に配備して力を示した。バイデン大統領はそれをしないというのであれば、プーチン大統領からみれば『口先だけだな』と(見透かされる)。お互いが強い立場にあるからこそ交渉ができる」と語った。


心配しないのはアメリカの出先機関かワシントンの拡声器くらいじゃないの? 

軍事力もっていて侵略に使うのと、防衛に使うのでは全然違う

 逆に、ロシアのウクライナ侵略から「軍事同盟の強化」「軍事力の強化」こそ必要だという教訓を引き出せば、力で相手を抑え込むというロシアと全く同じ立場に立つことであり、国連憲章に基づく紛争の平和的解決という世界の到達点を大きく後退させることになります
これが大きな間違い。

軍事力もっていて侵略に使うのと、防衛に使うのでは全然違う。
軍事力を強化しつつ、あるいは、軍事力が均衡するからこそ、平和的解決が容易になるのだ。

ヤクザの拳銃と警察の拳銃ではその意味がちがう。

やくざがいるから、市民の命をまもるためやっぱ警察には武器をもっていてもらったほうがいい。やくざをのさばらせてはいけない。

Unpredictable

 buvery Retweeted

 また、テレグラフでインタビューを受けてた人が言ってたんだけど、トランプ大統領の時代なら、ウクライナ侵略はなかった、バイデンだからやった、というのはどうか、という話で、たしか、トランプはunpredictable バイデンはrational だから、トランプのときはやらなかった可能性はある、と

 合理的だと行動が読めるけど、トランプさんは予想不可能だもんなあ。

 ちなみに、今回のプーチンの行動も合理的とはいえない。テレビ局の解説聞いていて、ドンバス、せいぜい、そこからクリミアあたり、という限定的な侵攻ならーー正当ではないがーーまだ、合理性があった。限定攻撃説のほうが説得力があった。

 将来の見通しが立たないのに、全面攻撃したのは戦術的には不合理だったと思うんだなああ。

Gesture =うわべだけのそぶり

 

おもしろいな、と思ったけど・・・読んでみると・・・どうなんだろうねえ。
。Acting Russian President Vladimir Putin, in an unexpected gesture to the West, suggested in a television interview today that Russia would consider joining NATO if the Western alliance agreed to treat Russia as an equal partner.

ジェスチャーだからね。

 an action that expresses your feelings or intentions, although it might have little practical effect:


(意思表示としての)行為、(思わせぶりな)言動、(うわべだけの)そぶり

記事ではうわべだけの素振りとして捉えられている。記事の後半では、

NATO attacked Yugoslavia last spring, the Russian military and political leadership reacted with anger and bitterness, freezing the relationship. When the fighting ended, Russia further aggravated NATO by sending its soldiers into Kosovo ahead of NATO peacekeepers.

While tensions have eased, Russian officials expressed irritation that a recent NATO meeting was held in Ukraine, and Russian officials have steadfastly opposed NATO inclusion of any former Soviet republics, some of which have expressed interest in joining.

Putin's statement on NATO drew immediate reaction at home. Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov, a presidential candidate, said it is "naive and unpardonable for a politician of his level" to make such a statement. 


 プーチンの安易な発言がロシアのエリートたちの反発を食らっている様が記述されている。 

 テレグラフのインタビュー受けてたロシア研究家が、ロシアのある世代の人達は西欧をきらってはいない、と・・・まあ、西欧と中国でどっちが文化的親近感があるか、といえば、それや西欧だわなああ。

 他方、西欧に対して神経症的な被害者意識もあるんだろうなああ。

 文化の話と戦略の話は違うけど、しかし、そうした複合的な心理=コンプレックスが、NATOとの関係も微妙で複雑なものしているんじゃないかね?


表向きの発言を取り上げて、



Why does Russia want to block Ukraine from joining Nato?

Russian leader vehemently opposed to neighbouring state signing up to western military alliance


Joe Sommerlad


To address those anxieties, the Nato-Russia Founding Act was signed in 1997, a political agreement explicitly stating that: “Nato and Russia do not consider each other as adversaries.”


The formation of the Nato-Russia Council followed in 2002.


But Mr Putin is nevertheless said to begrudge what he regards as the alliance’s gradual extension eastwards, which saw ex-Soviet satellites Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland join in 1999, followed by Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia in 2004.



 “It is obvious that Nato expansion does not have any relation with the modernisation of the alliance itself or with ensuring security in Europe,” he said at the Munich Security Conference in 2007. “On the contrary, it represents a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust.”


The following April, attending a Nato summit in Bucharest, he was even more emphatic: “No Russian leader could stand idly by in the face of steps toward Nato membership for Ukraine. That would be a hostile act toward Russia.”

 Four months later, Mr Putin invaded Georgia, destroying the country’s armed forces, occupying two autonomous regions and humiliating a president, Mikheil Saakashvili, who had openly courted Nato membership, actions that brought fresh international condemnation.

プーチンはNATOに反対していなかった、みたいな結論にはならなそうだけどね。

普段子供食堂に10億円とか寄付していたら・・・

 

suzuky Retweeted


これはこれでいいよ。 

ただなああ・・・普段子供食堂に10億円とか寄付していたら・・・ああ、三木谷って偉いなああ、杉良太郎さんみたいだなああ、とか思うんだけど・・・・なぜか、商売っ気を感じちゃうんだよねええ・・・・おれひねくれているのかなあ。もし、普段、最底辺の人たちに巨額の寄付してたら・・ごめんね・・・ぼくの誤解だから・・・

にらみあい

(プーチン、メルケルが怖くてメルケルが恐れる犬連れてきたのか?) 










Anti-Imperialism of Idiots

 





にでてきたやつがホンマにやっているわ。

One lesson is this: we must be able to criticize our own governments. 

In Britain, our leaders have invaded sovereign states without provocation. They did in Iraq in 2003, taking part in the killing of hundreds of thousands. The people who lied to take us into that war faced no consequences. Their careers continued, as did their luxurious lives, as an entire region of the world was plunged into the depths of hell for decades. We are still living with its consequences today, including here in Britain, whether it be the refugee crisis or the restriction of civil liberties brought about by the “war on terror.”


But they did not only do it in Iraq. We hear very little today about Britain’s role in the NATO-led war in Libya in 2011, which demolished that state, left its people in the hands of warlords, and pushed thousands to flee and drown in the Mediterranean. Nor do we hear about Britain’s complicity in the ongoing war in Yemen, conducted by our ally Saudi Arabia with our weapons, £17.6 billion of which have been provided by BAE systems to the Saudis since 2015. The United Nations estimates that 377,000 Yemenis have died in that conflict.

They sold the Ukrainian people a lie that their democracy and freedom would be safeguarded with US and British and French military might

And so, what was all this for? Why were the Ukrainians walked up a garden path only to be abandoned to their fate? Did anyone really believe that Russia would permit American missiles to be placed on its border? They didn’t, for the same reason we all know that the United States would never permit China to place its missiles in Guadalajara. In fact, we don’t need the hypothetical: when the Soviet Union tried it in Cuba, we got the Bay of Pigs invasion and the Cuban Missile Crisis, the closest the world has ever come to nuclear war.

  ピッグス湾事件(ピッグスわんじけん、スペイン語: Invasión de Bahía de Cochinos、英語: Bay of Pigs Invasion)は、1961年に在米亡命キューバ人部隊がアメリカ合衆国CIAの支援の下でグアテマラで軍事訓練の後、キューバに侵攻してフィデル・カストロ革命政権の打倒を試みた事件[1]。

いやあ、そりゃわかっているよ。(出羽守はわかっているかどうかわからんけど・・・・・)

欧米の言っていることとやっていることが全然違うってこととそのえげつない偽善は・・・でも、戦争進行中なんだよ。いまは、戦争と止めないとウクライナが壊滅し、また、被害が拡大してしまうんんだ。

ウクライナの主権を守りつつ、最小限の被害で戦争を止める方策を叫ばないと。

これぞ、オープンレター ロシア人科学者たちの反戦書簡

ロシア科学者や科学記者が反戦書簡 「ロシアは世界から孤立する」


 More than 600 Russian scientists sign open letter against war with Ukraine

Jamie DurraniBY JAMIE DURRANI25 FEBRUARY 2022




Открытое письмо российских ученых и научных журналистов против войны с Украиной

 24.02.2022 /  570 комментариев

グーグル翻訳

An open letter from Russian scientists and science journalists against the war with Ukraine

24.02.2022 /  570 comments

We, Russian scientists and scientific journalists, declare a strong protest against the hostilities launched by the armed forces of our country on the territory of Ukraine. This fatal step leads to huge human losses and undermines the foundations of the established system of international security. The responsibility for unleashing a new war in Europe lies entirely with Russia.


There is no rational justification for this war. Attempts to use the situation in Donbass as a pretext for launching a military operation do not inspire any confidence. It is clear that Ukraine does not pose a threat to the security of our country. The war against her is unfair and frankly senseless.


Ukraine has been and remains a country close to us. Many of us have relatives, friends and scientific colleagues living in Ukraine. Our fathers, grandfathers and great-grandfathers fought together against Nazism. Unleashing a war for the sake of the geopolitical ambitions of the leadership of the Russian Federation, driven by dubious historiosophical fantasies, is a cynical betrayal of their memory.


We respect Ukrainian statehood, which rests on really working democratic institutions. We treat the European choice of our neighbors with understanding. We are convinced that all problems in relations between our countries can be resolved peacefully.


Having unleashed the war, Russia doomed itself to international isolation, to the position of a pariah country. This means that we, scientists, will no longer be able to do our job normally: after all, conducting scientific research is unthinkable without full cooperation with colleagues from other countries. The isolation of Russia from the world means further cultural and technological degradation of our country in the complete absence of positive prospects. War with Ukraine is a step to nowhere.


It is bitter for us to realize that our country, together with other republics of the former USSR, which made a decisive contribution to the victory over Nazism, has now become the instigator of a new war on the European continent. We demand an immediate halt to all military operations directed against Ukraine. We demand respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Ukrainian state. We demand peace for our countries.

中国まともな意見は削除

 中国の学者有志が戦争反対の声明発表→まもなく削除され閲覧不能に


「ロシアがウクライナに対して起こした戦争に強く反対する。ロシアにいくら理由があっても、武力による主権国家への侵攻は既存の国際安全保障システムを破壊するものだ」と批判した。


 さらに、孫氏らは「ウクライナ国民の国を守る行動を断固支持する」とし、ロシア政府とプーチン大統領に対し「戦争を停止し、交渉で紛争を解決するよう強く呼びかける」と求めた。

実にまともな意見なのにね。

 

安倍元首相「核共有」の議論を

 安倍元首相「核共有」の議論を

2022/2/27


日本の生存と繁栄のために必要な問題提起をしていく・・・ここらへんは安倍ちゃんは偉いね。

もしもロシアが戦うのをやめたら、戦争はなくなる 。もしもウクライナが戦うのをやめたら、ウクライナがなくなる


もしもロシアが戦うのをやめたら、戦争はなくなる 

もしもウクライナが戦うのをやめたら、ウクライナがなくなる

もしもロシアに憲法9条があっても、プーチンの主権概念からすれば、憲法を無視して他国を侵略しただろう。

もしもウクライナに憲法9条があって、文字通り遵守していたら、ウクライナはすでになくなっていただろう。

市民は武器をとった。「戦争反対!」と声をあげて連帯するだけではロシア兵は帰ってくれなかったのか??

ロシア兵捕獲といえば・・・・

おれがパソコンやインターネットを使い始めた頃、よくわからず見てしまった動画が、チェチェンで捕まったロシア兵。

地面に頭を足で踏みつけられている・・・・と思ったらチェチェンの兵士がナイフで首を切り始めた・・・・あれは見たくなかった・・・・すぐに消した。

”Beijing understands it: if Russia can take Ukraine, why can’t China snatch Taiwan? ”

We’re appalled by Putin now, but be clear: the west gave him the green light 

Because Putin had hardly kept his worldview secret until now. On the contrary, he had acted on it at least three times in the past 15 years, each time paying little price. He seized a chunk of Georgia in 2008 and of Ukraine in 2014, to say nothing of his decision to adopt the Assad regime’s murderous war against the Syrian people as his own a year later. We may have forgotten about all that – the Russian dissident Garry Kasparov laments the “amnesia of the west” – but Putin had not. He noted the western shrug that greeted his annexation of Crimea: how, just four years later, Russia was cheerfully hosting the football World Cup.


 The grimmer prospect is that Putin understands something about the 21st century few of us want to face: that this is an age of impunity, especially for those who have a vast and deadly arsenal but no shame.

That is what’s at stake in this moment. Beijing understands it: if Russia can take Ukraine, why can’t China snatch Taiwan?


過去にプーチンにやりたい放題にせさて、それでいてお咎めなしだった。ああ、だったら今度も大丈夫だろう、と。さらに、プーチンがウクライナ取れるなら、中国は台湾とれるよな、と中国は理解するだろう、と。


これ、ガーディアンの記事ですよ。

 

侮辱していない言葉で侮辱した、と公言して名誉を毀損した、とか反訴したら・・・

 

その言葉では侮辱していないのにした、と公言されて名誉を毀損された、とか反訴したら・・・・どうなるのか?

ドイツでは武器提供しても「平和主義」

 

日本共産党は一切を犠牲にして、わが民族の独立と繁栄のために奮闘する決意を持っている、と

 
「我々はわが民族の独立をあくまで維持しなければならない。日本共産党は一切を犠牲にして、わが民族の独立と繁栄のために奮闘する決意を持っているのであります、要するに当憲法第二章(憲法9条を含む章)は、我が国の自衛権を放棄して民族の独立を危うくする危険がある、それゆえに我が党は民族独立のためにこの憲法を反対する第四の理由であります。」 
「民族」という言葉はやめて、「日本国民」にしてはどうか?

"Putin got beaten up by a small Japanese child"

 


mozu Retweeted

As long as China give them financial cushion to blunt sanctions, Putin's gonna have his own way.


Russia-Ukraine conflict will go on longer than Putin thought: Gen. Jack Keane  
 Ingraham: This invasion in many ways was made in China Laura Ingraham says President Biden’s weak presidency helped create the tragedy unfolding in Ukraine tonight. #FoxNews 

 As long as China gives them a financial cushion to blunt sanctions, Putin's going to have his own way.

   

 Sen. Pat Toomey: This is how you bring the Russian economy to its knees 

 Completely isolate Russian banks.



  The sanctioning country can prohibit firms and individuals in other countries from conducting commercial transactions with US citizens and businesses, to inhibit their economic relationship with the country targeted with “primary” economic sanctions.
▼セカンダリー・サンクション 制裁対象の国と結びつきが深い第三国の企業や金融機関への制裁を指し、二次的制裁と呼ばれる。北朝鮮による核・ミサイル開発の資金は、中国経由で外貨が流入していると指摘されていた。こうした資金の流れを断つために北朝鮮以外の国の企業に発動した。制裁対象になった銀行は他行から取引を敬遠されるため、効果が大きい。
To prevent an invasion of Ukraine, threaten to sanction Russia's central bank BY MICHAEL S. BERNSTAM, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 02/02/22 10:30
If sanctions are imposed on the Russian Central Bank, the $403 billion of its FX electronic holdings in the West could not be used. Russia will be left with little Western cash, unsaleable gold and Chinese bonds.

1)ロシアの銀行と取引した奴を制裁

2)ロシア中央銀行が電子保有しているドルを使えなくする。



 

 The Dollars Have Run Out': Russians Crowd ATMs As Sanctions Take Effect buvery Retweeted


 




Pope meets Russian ambassador to express ‘concern over war’ - 198 China News

What is SWIFT?


SWIFT - Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication - acts as the Gmail of global banking services. It was founded in 1973 to end reliance on the telex system, an international system used especially in the past for sending written messages.

How does the SWIFT system work?

On the consumer end, you can think of the SWIFT network a bit like travelling from one airport to another. It’s not always possible to take a direct flight. Which means you may need to travel from one city to another via several connecting flights. SWIFT works essentially the same way. Your money will travel from one country to another, but to do that there are often intermediary/correspondent banks involved.


The SWIFT network doesn’t actually transfer funds, but instead it sends payment orders between institutions’ accounts, using SWIFT codes. It was SWIFT that standardised IBAN (International Bank Account Numbers) and BIC (Bank Identifier Codes) formats. SWIFT owns and administers the BIC system, meaning that it can quickly identify a bank and send a payment there securely.


What does SWIFT mean for you?

As long as your bank is affiliated with SWIFT, then the network can be used to securely communicate a payment order and get your money from one place to another.



Let's assume a Bank of America (BAC) branch customer in New York wants to send money to their friend who banks at the UniCredit Banca branch in Venice. The New York customer can walk into their Bank of America branch with their friend’s account number and UniCredit Banca’s unique SWIFT code for its Venice branch.


Bank of America will send a payment transfer SWIFT message to the UniCredit Banca branch over the secure SWIFT network. Once Unicredit Banca receives the SWIFT message about the incoming payment, it will clear and credit the money to the Italian friend’s account.


国際間銀行送金用電子伝言システム、みたいな?。 



ロシア兵 ウクライナのロシア系老人に説教される。

サツキエモン


在日ロシア人ユーチューバはやいところ日本に帰化しちゃえば?

 

 
 つらいところだなあ。 

mozu Retweeted

Putin must face war crime charges

 

PM suggests Putin could face war crimes charges over Ukraine The Prime Minister told MPs "anyone who sends a Russian into battle to kill innocent Ukrainians" could be brought to court. 24th February 2022
Boris Johnson has signalled Russian President Vladimir Putin could face war crimes charges over the invasion of Ukraine.

The Prime Minister told MPs "anyone who sends a Russian into battle to kill innocent Ukrainians" could be brought to court.

He also told MPs the UK is working with allies to set up a "particular international war crimes tribunal for those involved in war crimes in the Ukraine theatre".

OpEdNews Op Eds 2/24/2022 at 3:30 PM EST    H3'ed 2/24/22

Vladimir Putin is a War Criminal Like Adolf Hitler

 And most importantly, Putin should be indicted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes.


 Putin must face war crime charges

Amanda Paul

Date: 25/02/2022

War crimes


Crucially, Putin and his cronies responsible for planning and implementing this war should not only have their assets frozen – something the EU is currently preparing for – and be sanctioned but also charged with war crimes. An unprovoked war against a peaceful sovereign state, which has already resulted in hundreds of deaths, including civilians, deserves no less.

Putin’s Historic Miscalculation May Make Him a War Criminal

The West condemns Russia’s aggression as “barbaric” and “horrific,” as Biden warns that conflict could drag on for weeks or months.

By Robin Wright


February 24, 2022

Putin may now also qualify as a war criminal, according to the Geneva Conventions of 1949. War crimes include willful killing and extensive destruction of property “not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly.” The term has been inconsistently interpreted and unevenly applied to leaders or countries—including to the U.S. and its officials—who have initiated aggression for reasons considered unjustified. In Ukraine, Putin’s “war of choice” has clearly violated international law through his invasion of a sovereign country and attempt to oust its government.


 

戦争反対の声を上げるのは大事だが、それでは全然不十分。ウクライナは何より武力援助を求めている。


 buvery Retweeted

  

辻元さんがインタビューしているウクライナの女性は、
私達の常識では話しあいなどできないので強い力、強い制裁、強い行動にでないと・・・

と言っている。


国から逃走中の女性、武器と薬品がほしい、軍隊を助けてくれ、と。

Zelensky asks Europe to defend Ukraine against invading Russian forces
"If you have combat experience in Europe and do not want to look at the indecision of politicians, you can come to our country and join us in defending Europe, where it is very necessary now," Zelensky, who appeared tired, said in a video.

 

Speaking on the second day of the attack launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Zelensky also asked Europeans to "demand from your governments that Ukraine receive more financial, more military aid."


大統領は、弾丸を、資金と軍事援助を、参戦を求めている。 

日本の対応として、「戦争反対」の声をあげることと「経済制裁」をすることは間違っていないし、それ以上のことをすることはできない。

しかし、軍事侵攻されているものに一番必要なのは軍事援助であって、声援ではない。 

kazukazu88 Retweeted

ウクライナ現地の人たちにとってーー声援が不要とは言わないがーー声援だけでは悪い冗談である。 

 声を上げたり、経済制裁するだけで戦争が抑止できるように思っている口ぶりだが、それではやはり甘ちょろすぎる。



2022年2月26日土曜日

"Our [Ukraine's] only crime was that we wanted to come closer to Europe,"


Ex-ambassador in Kyiv: EU leaders should be 'ashamed' Kostiantyn Yelisieiev (centre) was Ukraine's ambassador to the EU from 2010 to 2015 (Photo: consilium.europa.eu) By ANDREW RETTMAN BRUSSELS, 25. FEB, 12:52


"Let me tell you how I felt when I listened to the EU leaders announce their sanctions: You should be ashamed of yourselves for the rest of your lives that you left us all alone at this moment to face Russian aggression," Ukraine's former ambassador to the EU, Kostiantyn Yelisieiev, told EUobserver from Kyiv on Friday morning (25 February).

"Yesterday I evacuated my family from the city and if anything was to happen to them, you should feel ashamed for the rest of your lives," he added, voicing raw emotion.


"You've chosen to protect your luxury lifestyles, eating Belgian chocolates and drinking Belgian beer. You chose economic welfare over protecting human lives," Yelisieiev said.

"Our [Ukraine's] only crime was that we wanted to come closer to Europe," the former diplomat said, glancing back at the course of events since Ukraine's pro-Western revolutions and the fall of the USSR in 1991.


「欧米」のいうことを鵜呑みにしたばっかりに 

Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances



核放棄から始まったウクライナ危機、力なき外交の現実

織田 邦男 2022/02/22



ブダペスト覚書



The memorandum included security assurances against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.


As a result, between 1994 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons. Until then, Ukraine had the world's third-largest nuclear weapons stockpile,[2][3] of which Ukraine had physical but no operational control. Russia alone controlled the codes needed to operate the nuclear weapons, [4][5] through electronic Permissive Action Links and the Russian command and control system.[4][5] Formally, these weapons were controlled by the Commonwealth of Independent States.[6]


  Martel, William C. (1998). "Why Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons: non-proliferation incentives and disincentives". In Barry R. Schneider; William L. Dowdy (eds.). Pulling Back from the Nuclear Brink: Reducing and Countering Nuclear Threats. Psychology Press. pp. 88–104. ISBN 9780714648569. Retrieved 6 August 2014. There are some reports that Ukraine had established effective custody, but not operational control, of the cruise missiles and gravity bombs.... By early 1994 the only barrier to Ukraine's ability to exercise full operational control over the nuclear weapons on missiles and bombers deployed on its soil was its inability to circumvent Russian permissive action links (PALs).


 Permissive Action Link

From Wikipedia, 

A Permissive Action Link (PAL) is an access control security device for nuclear weapons. Its purpose is to prevent unauthorized arming or detonation of the nuclear weapon

2022年2月24日木曜日

” Mearsheimer......Ukraine without any nuclear deterrent was likely to be subjected to aggression by Russia,”

  Kiev is developing a command and control system of its own that could be used to launch the weapons without Moscow's permission. 


一部の評論家やツイッター軍事オタクの言っていることとはちょっと違うみたいだね。

"Molotov cocktail"

 「火炎瓶 作り方」ウクライナで検索回数急増 当局が市民に呼びかけ


Molotov Cocktail 

Etymology

The name's origin came from the propaganda Molotov produced during the Winter War, mainly his declaration on Soviet state radio that bombing missions over Finland were actually airborne humanitarian food deliveries for their starving neighbours.[2] As a result, the Finns sarcastically dubbed the Soviet cluster bombs "Molotov bread baskets" in reference to Molotov's propaganda broadcasts.[3] When the hand-held bottle firebomb was developed to attack and destroy Soviet tanks, the Finns called it the "Molotov cocktail", as "a drink to go with his food parcels".[4]

火炎瓶でもともと対ソ連の戦車用だったんだあああ。 

"At bottom of Kremlin's neurotic view of world affairs is traditional and instinctive Russian sense of insecurity."

George Kennan's "Long Telegram" -
At bottom of Kremlin's neurotic view of world affairs is traditional and instinctive Russian sense of insecurity. Originally, this was insecurity of a peaceful agricultural people trying to live on vast exposed plain in neighborhood of fierce nomadic peoples. To this was added, as Russia came into contact with economically advanced West, fear of more competent, more powerful, more highly organized societies in that area. But this latter type of insecurity was one which afflicted rather Russian rulers than Russian people; for Russian rulers have invariably sensed that their rule was relatively archaic in form fragile and artificial in its psychological foundation, unable to stand comparison or contact with political systems of Western countries. For this reason they have always feared foreign penetration, feared direct contact between Western world and their own, feared what would happen if Russians learned truth about world without or if foreigners learned truth about world within. And they have learned to seek security only in patient but deadly struggle for total destruction of rival power, never in compacts and compromises with it.

....

Basically this is only the steady advance of uneasy Russian nationalism, a centuries old movement in which conceptions of offense and defense are inextricably confused. 

  

この部分だけでも参考になるもんなああ。