その筋の人々の間で話題のFA論文。北京による台湾侵攻がなぜとても魅力的なものになっているのかを本土側の軍事関係者のコメントやメディアなどの煽り方を論拠として説明。すでに米国による決意とは無関係に北京側が「いつやるか」というモードに入っていると示唆。https://t.co/vVsVLXjPoW
— OKUYAMA Masashi ┃奥山真司 (@masatheman) June 6, 2021
Support for armed unification among the Chinese public and the military establishment is growing. Concern for international norms is subsiding. Many in Beijing also doubt that the United States has the military power to stop China from taking Taiwan—or the international clout to rally an effective coalition against China in the wake of Donald Trump’s presidency.Xi has also made clear that he is more willing than his predecessors to use force.The death knell for peaceful unification came in June 2020, however, when China exerted sweeping new powers over Hong Kong through a new national security law.The voices in Beijing arguing that it is time to use these newfound military capabilities against Taiwan have grown louder, a telling development in an era of greater censorship.Once China has the military capabilities to finally solve its Taiwan problem, Xi could find it politically untenable not to do so, given the heightened nationalism of both the CCP and the public.They see the Chinese people as more willing to make sacrifices for the cause of Taiwan than the American people. Some argue, too, that China’s large domestic market makes it less reliant on international trade than many other countriesAustralia has been cautious about expanding its military cooperation with the United States and reluctant even to consider joint contingency planning over Taiwan (although the tide seems to be shifting in Canberra). Opinion polls show that most Europeans value their economic ties with China and the United States roughly the same and don’t want to be caught in the middle. Southeast Asia feels similarly
One way to convince Beijing would be to develop the capabilities to physically stop it from taking Taiwan—deterrence by denial. This would involve positioning missile launchers and armed drones near Taiwan and more long-range munitions, especially antiship weapons, in places such as Guam, Japan, and the Philippines.
グアム、日本、フィリピンなどにミサイルや軍事用ドーロンを配備すれば、多少引き止める効果はあるのかもしれんが、侵略する実力と意思があるわけだから時間の問題。
アメリカは太刀打ちできないし、アメリカ国民は、太刀打ちする気力もない。アメリカは同盟国にももうそれほど信頼されていない。
Say Goodbye to Taiwan日本は台湾からの難民受け入れ体制と自国を守る準備をすべき・・・（河野くんは駄目ね。）
0 件のコメント:
コメントを投稿