対コロナ戦ー必ず終わりは来る。

How and when will this pandemic end? We asked a virologist

We may be approaching a saturation point in terms of coronavirus infections in some of the worst-hit countries.
Eventually, the virus will run out of people to infect.
But there are still many unknowns when it comes to this virus

How will this pandemic end?

Guido Vanham (GV): It will probably never end, in the sense that this virus is clearly here to stay unless we eradicate it. And the only way to eradicate such a virus would be with a very effective vaccine that is delivered to every human being.

But at some point in this epidemic - and certainly in the countries that are most affected, like Italy and Spain - there will be saturation, because according to predictions, up to 40% percent of the Spanish and 26% of the Italian population are or have been infected already. And, of course, when you go over 50% or so, even without doing anything else, the virus just has fewer people to infect - and so the epidemic will come down naturally. And that's what happened in in all the previous epidemics when we didn't have any [treatments]. The rate of infection and the number of those susceptible will determine when that happens.

ワクチンができればコロナとの戦いは終わるが、何もしなくても、人口の５０％ほど感染すれば、徐々に感染する相手がいなくなって、飽和状態になって、この伝染も自然におさまるだろう、と。

ーーーそれまでにはかなり死者がでるから、棺桶と火葬場の増設を・・・というようなことは書いていないが、ワクチンや治療薬がなく、何もやらなければ、そんな感じかなあ。



鳥越氏は集団免疫派みたいですね。

致死率は、インフルより高い、と言われてますがね、コロナのほうが。


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