2021年4月2日金曜日

Black males face a roughly one in a thousand lifetime chance of being killed by police, 2.5 times more than white males.

 

WSJの記事が全部読めないのだが、

A widely touted study found no evidence of racism in police shootings. It’s full of errors.

The auBy Dean Knox and Jonathan Mummolo
July 15, 2020 at 11:53 thors retracted it because of those flaws — not for political reasons

このWSJの記事は撤回された 論文に基づいている、と

In the Wall Street Journal on June 2, an article headlined “The myth of systemic police racism” argued the “charge of systemic police bias was wrong during the Obama years and remains so today.” Like many others making this case, the piece cited an article published last year in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), by researchers at Michigan State University and the University of Maryland, who concluded, “We did not find evidence for anti-Black or anti-Hispanic disparity in police use of force across all shootings, and, if anything, found anti-White disparities … ” 

The study promised to answer two questions: Which groups of civilians were more likely to be shot by police, and which groups of officers were more likely to shoot them.

But the analysis went wrong from the start. To begin to measure racial bias in police killings, careful researchers must ask: How often do officers use fatal force out of all encounters between minority civilians and the police? They should then compare this with the same analysis for white civilians, accounting for relevant differences between minority and white encounters.

That’s not what the paper did. Instead, it looked only at fatal encounters and asked, in average circumstances, which group of civilians appears more often among victims? In other words, they analyzed how often fatally shot civilians were black and Hispanic. But they confused this with a much more important question: How often are black and Hispanic civilians fatally shot. It’s a basic statistical error (violating a centuries-old tenet of statistical analysis called Bayes’ theorem). These quantities can differ enormously: When officers encounter many more white civilians (due to whites’ majority status, for example), the proportion of killings involving black civilians can be small, even if encounters with black civilians are more likely to end in shootings.



Even if they had measured crime correctly, the problem is that the overarching analysis fundamentally makes no sense: How often fatally shot civilians were minorities is simply not the same question as how often minority civilians were shot when interacting with officers. This problem is further magnified when comparing across officer racial groups, because minority officers are often assigned to patrol in co-racial neighborhoods. Without knowing how often each officer group encounters black, Hispanic, and white civilians, the analysis is completely uninformative.

To be clear, accurately estimating racial bias in police shootings nationwide is a difficult task. Comprehensive records of lethal force — the numerator in the deaths-per-encounter ratio — only recently became available through open records requests, crowdsourcing, and enterprise journalism. Subsequent research shows black males face a roughly one in a thousand lifetime chance of being killed by police, 2.5 times more than white males. The denominator — how often racial groups encounter police — is largely unknown, because police are not required to report many kinds of encounters. But this difficulty is no excuse for shoddy work, especially on a life-or-death policy matter.


 2019年に警察は1004人を殺害しその23%が黒人。

問題は、警察によって殺害された人たちの中で黒人の割合が云々ということではないんだ、と。

　白人のほうが人口が多く、警官が白人と接触する場合が多ければ、警官によって白人が殺害されるケースが多くなり、殺害された人たちのなかで、黒人が殺害される率は少ないということになるが、問題は、警官が黒人と接触する場合と、白人と接触する場合とで警官は、どちらに対して致命的な暴力を振るう場合が多いか、ということなんだ、と。

　そういう観点からみると、黒人男性は、白人男性より２．５倍の確率で警官に殺害されやすい、と。

The Problems With the Wall Street Journal’s “Myth of Systemic Police Racism” Op-Ed

The author, Heather Mac Donald, Misused Data and Withheld Details That Undermined her Argument.

Mike Kessler

Jun 12, 2020·

たしかに黒人による犯罪率は高いが、

So when Mac Donald touts these high crime numbers among blacks, she’s missing the point. A root cause of high rates of black crime is a system that has worked against blacks since they first got to this country

その原因の根本には、黒人差別社会があるんだ、と。

また、警官による差別的暴力や司法の差別について、次の記事を掲載している。

There’s overwhelming evidence

that the criminal justice system

is racist. Here’s the proof.

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