lockdowns should be strict and brief

 

Lockdown fatigue: The declining effectiveness of lockdowns Patricio Goldstein, Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Luca Sartorio 30 March 2021 

 Conclusions 

These results suggest that restrictions applied for a long period or reintroduced late in the pandemic (for example, in the event of a resurgence of cases) would exert, at best, a weaker, attenuated effect on the circulation of the virus and the number of casualties. Combined with the results in Haug et al. (2020), they suggest that lockdowns should be strict and brief.

  Lockdown Effectiveness: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

Conclusion 4: Summary

1: Various policies lumped together as “lockdowns” probably significantly decreased R. Full-blown stay-at home orders were less important than targeted policies like school closures and banning large gatherings. Talking about which ones were “good” or “bad” is an oversimplification compared to the more useful questions of when countries should have started vs. stopped each to be on some kind of Pareto frontier of lives saved vs. cost.

2: If Sweden had a stronger lockdown more like those of other European countries, it probably could have reduced its death rate by 50-80%, saving 2,500+ lives.

3: On a very naive comparison, US states with stricter lockdowns had about 20% lower death rates than states with weaker ones, and about 0.6% more GDP decline. There are high error bars on both those estimates.

6: Plausibly, really fast and well-targeted lockdowns could have been better along every dimension than either strong-lockdown areas’ strong lockdowns or weak-lockdown areas’ weak lockdowns. We should celebrate the countries that successfully pulled this off, and support the people trying to figure out how to make this easier to pull off next time.

Analyzing the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies df

S Liu 著 · 2021 

Our results were similar to the relevant research, which suggested that the stringent

lockdown policies adopted in China, Italy, and Spain were among the most effective

national-scale policies .....

Our results support the conclusion of Haug et al. (2020) that lockdowns should be strict and brief 

パラパラと適当にロックダウンについての記事の結論だけみると、ロックダウンは効果はあるが、だらだらと長いのはだめで、短期間、厳格にビシッとやるのがええ、みたいな感じかなあ。