a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members.

16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/77482 Page 1 of 20
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand

We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally requireThis may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be
recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased

absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package –
or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a
vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission
will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing –
triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in
relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers
rebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in
the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and
economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced.

個人間接触の減少政策とって、クラスターが増加したら、ときどき、北海道のように、学校、店舗、イベント自粛政策とって、ワクチンできるまで凌いでいくしかないね。

老人も含めて、健康のために外での運動も必要だし、経済活動のために営業も必要だが、症状がでた家庭では２週間は外出自粛とか・・・・なかなか大変な年月になるねえ。