早期介入は必須 手洗い、集会自粛も当分継続 第２波の兆候があったら速攻で行動を

suzukyさんがリツイート

We're right on track along with #France #Spain & #Germany to follow #Italy into #COVID19 crisis..... https://t.co/zHAzyXyVhD

— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) March 13, 2020

中国政府が1週間早くアクションを取ればCOVID-19感染者を66%減らせたとのサザンプトン大学のシミュレーション https://t.co/rq9uSc0UEX　中国では2月末までに114325件の感染が報告されたが、逆に1月23日の武漢閉鎖等のアクションがなければその67倍になりえた。

— Spica (@Kelangdbn) March 13, 2020

The research also found that if interventions in the country could have been conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks earlier, cases could have been reduced by 66 percent, 86 percent and 95 percent respectively – significantly limiting the geographical spread of the disease. However, if NPIs were conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks later than they were, the number of cases may have shown a 3-fold, 7-fold, or 18-fold increase, respectively.

Study author Dr Shengjie Lai, of the University of Southampton, comments: “Our study demonstrates how important it is for countries which are facing an imminent outbreak to proactively plan a coordinated response which swiftly tackles the spread of the disease on a number of fronts. We also show that China’s comprehensive response, in a relatively short period, greatly reduced the potential health impact of the outbreak.”

The research also found that improved disease detection, isolation of cases and social distancing (for example, the cancelling of large public events, working from home and school closures) are likely to have had a far greater positive impact on containment than travel restrictions. The authors suggest social distancing should be continued for the next few months in China to prevent case numbers increasing again after the lifting of travel restrictions in late February.

だいたい、感染抑制に、早期介入が有効というのは、一致してきているね。

発見、隔離、集会・イベント、自宅作業、学校閉鎖など、人が集まることに対する規制、自重などのほうが渡航禁止より効果的ではないか、と。

第２波の兆候があったら速攻で行動にうつさないとね。