感染爆発→患者の津波→医療体制崩壊

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イタリア人が、英国と米国はとっとと封鎖しろ、と言っている。感染爆発の指数関数路線に入ったら、そうなるだろうね。日本だって悪い方へ転べばそうなる。それまでは、何とでも生活を止めないようにしないと、肺炎はならないが金がなくて死ぬ。https://t.co/RY23syXo18

— buvery (@buvery) March 15, 2020

イタリアを見習え、と聞いていたのがついこの間

he inability of the medical system to deal with the flow of patients in critical condition is not one of the problems of this complex medical emergency. It is the problem. I shouldn’t have been surprised. As a journalist, I had read, heard, and spoken to several experts explaining that the most immediate threat of Covid-19 was the hospital system becoming overwhelmed, and therefore the most pressing need was to avoid too many people getting sick at the same time, as resources are limited. (It’s what’s called “flattening the curve.”)

Italy has now been in lockdown since March 9; it took weeks after the virus first appeared here to realize that severe measures were absolutely necessary.


According to several data scientists, Italy is about 10 days ahead of Spain, Germany, and France in the epidemic progression, and 13 to 16 days ahead of the United Kingdom and the United States. That means those countries have the opportunity to take measures that today may look excessive and disproportionate, yet from the future, where I am now, are perfectly rational in order to avoid a health care system collapse.

甘く見ると、感染爆発→患者の津波→医療体制崩壊　という連鎖はどこでもありえる。他人事ではないね。警戒と準備はしておかないと、

街に水が溢れ出してきたと思ったら、すぐに河のように流れ始めた津波のように、それこそ、「あっ」という間なんだろうね。