黒鳥ーーコロナが去っても、世界は大不況に

ファイルが読めたので、ドイツの３月８日の報告。
PDF https://t.co/MB916kw4No

ドイツの新型肺炎の発生の中心はケルン西方、ベルギー、オランダ国境に接するHeinsberg。

検査年齢は圧倒的に６０未満。ドイツは新型肺炎の好発年齢を外した無益な検査を重ねており、実態を把握していない。 pic.twitter.com/tzZ1ppJtFI

— buvery (@buvery) March 9, 2020

Italy’s Coronavirus death toll soared by 133 today. Here is the age distribution of those deaths. pic.twitter.com/q4mEDMFdQu

— Goldmaan Sats (@_the_archer) March 9, 2020

やばいのは６０代以上

１、ヨーロッパは景気後退し、世界的不況になる。米国が不況になればもっと悪化。２、イタリアからの入国禁止を急ぐべき。一番濃いところだけでも抑えれば良い。数の問題だから、完璧を目指さなくて良い。３、オリンピックは無理。早目に一年延期する。４、米国は中国を死に物狂いで叩き潰す。

— buvery (@buvery) March 9, 2020

グレート・リセッション（英: Great Recession）は、2000年代後半から2010年代初頭までの間に世界市場で観察された大規模な経済的衰退の時期を指す。景気後退の規模や時期は国ごとに異なる[1][2]。全世界への影響という点から、国際通貨基金は、第二次世界大戦以来最悪の大規模景気後退局面であると結論付けた

ブラック・スワン理論

黒い白鳥
ブラック・スワン理論（ブラック・スワンりろん、英語：black swan theory）は、「ありえなくて起こりえない」と思われていたことが急に生じた場合、「予測できない」、「非常に強い衝撃を与える」という理論[1]。とりわけ予測できない金融危機と自然災害をよく表している。

The Coronavirus Recession Will Be Unusually Difficult to Fight
Consequences will linger even after the virus dissipates.

6:00 AM ET

Annie Lowrey
Staff writer at The Atlantic

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecast this month that in a best-case scenario, COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, and its fallout would slash global growth by half a percentage point. In a more likely scenario, given how governments are dithering on emergency financial measures and bungling their public-health responses, it might slash global growth in half, meaning that many countries would fall into outright recession. The world economy faces the “greatest threat” since the Great Recession, the group concluded.



The risk that the epidemic intensifies abroad, making the United States’ policy job that much harder, is prevalent, too. Congress can pump demand into the American economy, but cannot do much, if anything, overseas. “The coronavirus has been a body blow to the Chinese economy, which now threatens to take out the entire global economy,” argues Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics. “The economy was already fragile before the outbreak and vulnerable to anything that did not stick to script. COVID-19 is way off script. COVID-19 came out of nowhere. It may be what economists call a black swan—a rare and inherently unforeseeable event with severe consequences.”

Those consequences have already proved severe, and are becoming more severe around the world. And they will linger even after the virus dissipates.

コロナが落ち着いても、世界は、
グレートレセション以来の大不況に直面。しかも、手強い。経済学者のいうブラック・スワンかも、と。

“We need a detailed, pandemic-induced financial crisis plan, that forestalls bankruptcies and insolvencies where possible, without causing downstream crises,” writes John Cochrane, an economist at the University of Chicago. “Yes, you heard it here, judiciously targeted bailouts are really the only way I can think of to keep businesses and people from going bankrupt given the absence of pandemic insurance.” He adds that he does not know of any such plan.

That does not mean it is impossible to come up with one: Harvard’s Jason Furman has suggested that Congress send every adult American $1,000 and every child $500, immediately.

安倍政権の生ぬるい経済政策では、到底おっつきそうもないね。