スペインかぜからの教訓ー閉鎖、隔離政策も初期段階では有効

This chart of the 1918 Spanish flu shows why social distancing works
March 12, 2020
Michael J. Coren
By Michael J. Coren
Climate reporter



スペイン風邪からの教訓
フィラデルフィアでは、大規模なパレードやって、スペイン風邪での死者数が急増。ところが、

By the end of the week, more than 4,500 were dead in an outbreak that would claim as many as 100 million people worldwide. By the time Philadelphia’s politicians closed down the city, it was too late.

A different story played out in St. Louis, just 900 miles away. Within two days of detecting its first cases among civilians, the city closed schools, playgrounds, libraries, courtrooms, and even churches. Work shifts were staggered and streetcar ridership was strictly limited. Public gatherings of more than 20 people were banned.


“I think the critical lesson from both the modeling and the historical work is that the benefits of multiple interventions are greatest if they are introduced early (before 1% of the population is infected)

１５００キロ先のセントルイスでは、被害は緩慢だった、と。（グラフ実線と点線）感染者をみつけた早い段階で、学校、公園、図書館、裁判所、教会を閉鎖し、勤務時間、自動車の運転も調整、制限、２０人以上の集会も禁止した結果である、と。

早期の段階だと、こうした集会を禁止する隔離政策が有効で、台湾やシンガポールの成功はここにあるんだ、と。