Cases of seasonal flu have also been declining for seven straight weeks in Japan

記事の見出し訳）日本ではコロナウィルスの爆発的な流行が予想されていた。何故、（爆発的な流行が）発生していないのか？
https://t.co/4ClD5ykFaE https://t.co/Rg0AMjx5dZ

— 山口貴士 aka無駄に感じが悪いヤマベン (@otakulawyer) March 19, 2020

Kenji Shibuya, a professor at King’s College London and a former chief of health policy at the World Health Organization, sees two possibilities: that Japan has contained the spread by focusing on outbreak clusters, or that there are outbreaks yet to be found.

“Both are reasonable, but my guess is that Japan is about to see the explosion and will inevitably shift from containment to delay-the-peak phase very soon,” he said. “The number of tests is increasing, but not enough.”


Japan may have some built-in advantages, such as a culture where handshakes and hugs are less common than in other G-7 countries. It also has rates of hand-washing above those in Europe.


Cases of seasonal flu have been declining for seven straight weeks, just as the coronavirus was spreading, indicating Japanese may have taken to heart the need to adopt some basic steps to stem infectious diseases. Tokyo Metropolitan Infectious Disease Surveillance Center data shows that influenza cases this year are well below normal levels, with nationwide cases at the lowest, according to data going back to 2004.


Should Japan see a jump, it may be better suited than many peers to handle the surge. It has about 13 hospital beds per 1,000 people, the highest among Group of Seven nations and more than triple the rate for Italy, the U.S., U.K. and Canada, according to World Bank data.

インフルエンザの流行も抑制されているわけだから、手洗いなどの衛生習慣で、抑えられてはいるんだろう。

ただ、ロンドンカレッジの渋谷先生の言ういつ爆発があってもおかしくない状態、というのはおれの直感とも合致する。

もっとも、日本がまだ、containment しようと思っているところは間違い。慢性病のようなものだと、長期化は覚悟している。むしろ、感染者数増大の山頂を低くして、死者数を最小限にすることをすでに目標においているのである。





定点医療機関当たり患者報告数　　2020年3月15日（第11週）まで