気を緩めれば、増殖する When controls are relaxed, they can resurge.

Coronavirus social distancing: What's true and what's false. My ⁦@USATODAY⁩ oped with ⁦@j_g_allen⁩ ⁦@CCDD_HSPH⁩ ⁦@HarvardChanSPH⁩ ⁦@HarvardEpi⁩ ⁦@HarvardEnvHlth⁩ https://t.co/BERdMiRhCM

— Marc Lipsitch (@mlipsitch) March 16, 2020

Myth: If we do enough social distancing, we will see dramatic results immediately.

Reality: In Chinese cities, the streets have been nearly empty for over a month under an extreme form of social distancing that is just beginning to be lifted. Social distancing in the United States is likely to be less intense, for many reasons. One lesson we can learn from China is that, even with very intense interventions, the demand for hospital beds and intensive care continued to rise for weeks. That’s because once someone is infected, it takes time before they get sick enough to need hospital care. We are social distancing now to reduce the strain on our health care system several weeks from now


Myth: Social distancing for a period of a month or so may be enough to stop the epidemic permanently.

Reality: Even though the disease can decline in one city or area with very effective social distancing, the virus is still present — in small numbers of mildly ill people, perhaps in very ill patients hospitalized for a long period, and in other parts of the world. History shows that when social distancing works, case numbers go down, and then when controls are relaxed, they can resurge. Unfortunately, we are in this for a long haul. We need to prepare to pull together, help one another and preserve social cohesion while we use social distancing to combat the virus.

対人近距離接触回避政策をとってもすぐに効果がでるわけではないし、効果がでても、制限を緩めれば、また、頭をもたげる。軽症の人たちの中にウイルスが潜伏していることがあるし、病院や、他の地域で、ウイルスが発生しているからだ、と。長い付き合いになるだろう、と。