封鎖はなんの効果もなかった、と

extrapolate
【他動】
〔未知の事柄を既知の事柄から〕推定する
《数学》外挿する

ヨーロッパではロックダウンはなんの意味も無かったという論文来ました。制限キツい国は近隣諸国の緩いところと比較しても効果は変わらない。

Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic. | medRxiv https://t.co/WQwW2f4MW2

— Isseki Nagae/永江一石@「虎の穴」 (@Isseki3) May 5, 2020

Abstract
This phenomenological study assesses the impacts of full lockdown strategies applied in Italy, France, Spain and United Kingdom, on the slowdown of the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak. Comparing the trajectory of the epidemic before and after the lockdown, we find no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate, doubling time, and reproduction number trends. Extrapolating pre-lockdown growth rate trends, we provide estimates of the death toll in the absence of any lockdown policies, and show that these strategies might not have saved any life in western Europe. We also show that neighboring countries applying less restrictive social distancing measures (as opposed to police-enforced home containment) experience a very similar time evolution of the epidemic.