医療、経済を維持し、パンデミックを制するにはワクチンしかない、と

 

デルタのまとめ。従来の感染対策（飲食店や映画館など）もデルタ用に直す必要があると思う。

Confronting the Delta Variant of SARS-CoV-2 https://t.co/srLbdtI9i9 @JAMA_current part of @JAMANetworkより

— 岩田健太郎 Kentaro Iwata (@georgebest1969) August 19, 2021

記事は、飲食店、映画館についての言及はなく、それは、岩田先生のご意見。 

 The Delta variant is highly transmissible, estimated to be about 60% more transmissible than the Alpha variant, and the CDC has suggested its basic reproduction rate (R0; ie, the estimated number of secondary cases of infections that are transmitted from an infected person to a susceptible population) is somewhere between 5 and 8

 While many unknowns remain, what is abundantly clear is the only way to contain and eventually end the coronavirus pandemic is for more people to get vaccinated.

With an R0 of 6, it will be extremely difficult to slow the spread of the Delta variant because the herd immunity threshold (ie, the proportion of persons who would need to be fully vaccinated, infected, or both, to interrupt endemic transmission) would need to be greater than 85%.8 However, even this level of vaccination may not be enough in many situations. For example, in Iceland, nearly all the eligible population is vaccinated; 96% of females and 90% of males 16 years and older have received at least 1 dose of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, making it one of the most highly vaccinated populations in the world. However, even in Iceland there has been an increase in COVID-19 cases because of the Delta variant. But despite the increase in cases there has not been an increase in COVID-19–related deaths, and vaccinated individuals who become infected generally have recovered without serious illness.9 These data suggest that even if herd immunity is not achieved for COVID-19 (given the Delta variant), high levels of vaccination will help prevent hospitalizations and deaths as SARS-CoV-2 moves toward endemicity.

Vaccines are the only way forward that will preserve the health care infrastructure and the economy, and eventually contain the pandemic. 

　デルタは感染力がつよく集団免疫は不可能。

　基本再生産数は５から８。基本再生産数６の場合、集団免疫には８５％の人が接種する必要がある。アイスランドの場合１６歳以上の９０％の男性、９６％の女性が少なくとも一回ワクチンを受けたがそれでも感染者数は増加。

　もっとも、ワクチンが普及すれば入院、死亡例は減少し、パンデミックからエンデミックになる手助けにはなる。

　医療、経済を維持し、パンデミックを制するにはワクチンしかない、と。

　ワクチンの出遅れ、供給不足、不手際、リスクを無視して大臣と大企業を優先したデタラメ提供は、日本の医療、経済には大きな痛手になった。