Imagine the outrage in Washington if China built an impressive military alliance and tried to include Canada and Mexico in it.

 池田信夫さんがリツイート

基本中の基本:ロシアがNATO不拡大を求める目的は防衛ではなく、侵略です。ウクライナ、モルドバ、ジョージアのNATO加盟は、ロシアの安全保障を一切脅かさない。逆に、この3国はNATOに加盟しなければ、いつまでもロシアの脅威にさらされます。露の嘘に惑わされてはいけません。https://t.co/WJN8sydYPp

— グレンコ　アンドリー（新刊「NATOの教訓」発売中） (@Gurenko_Andrii) January 8, 2022

「ロシアの安全保障を一切脅かさない」と言ってもロシアはそう思っていない。

Why the Ukraine Crisis Is 

the West’s Fault

The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin

John J. Mearsheimer

 “Georgia’s and Ukraine’s membership in the alliance is a huge strategic mistake which would have most serious consequences for pan-European security.” Putin maintained that admitting those two countries to NATO would represent a “direct threat” to Russia. 

Russia’s invasion of Georgia in August 2008 should have dispelled any remaining doubts about Putin’s determination to prevent Georgia and Ukraine from joining NATO. 

Putin’s actions should be easy to comprehend. A huge expanse of flat land that Napoleonic France, imperial Germany, and Nazi Germany all crossed to strike at Russia itself, Ukraine serves as a buffer state of enormous strategic importance to Russia. 

Imagine the outrage in Washington if China built an impressive military alliance and tried to include Canada and Mexico in it.

Putin and his compatriots have been thinking and acting according to realist dictates, whereas their Western counterparts have been adhering to liberal ideas about international politics. The result is that the United States and its allies unknowingly provoked a major crisis over Ukraine

. History shows that countries will absorb enormous amounts of punishment in order to protect their core strategic interests. There is no reason to think Russia represents an exception to this rule

The United States and its allies should abandon their plan to westernize Ukraine and instead aim to make it a neutral buffer between NATO and Russia, akin to Austria’s position during the Cold War. 

To achieve this end, the United States and its allies should publicly rule out NATO’s expansion into both Georgia and Ukraine

Did Cuba have the right to form a military alliance with the Soviet Union during the Cold War? The United States certainly did not think so, and the Russians think the same way about Ukraine joining the West

 It would therefore be the height of folly to create a new NATO member that the other members have no intention of defending.

ウクライナはロシアの核心的利益であり、必須の緩衝地帯。経済的制裁を受けてもNATOの影響下に置きたくない。仮に中国がカナダやメキシコと軍事同盟を結んだら、米国だって放っておくまいーそれと同じだ、と。他方NATOはウクライナのために軍事的に戦いたくもない。 だったら、NATOも米国も、ウクライナをロシアとの間の中立的な緩衝地帯にしておくにこしたことはない、とミアシャイマー