The genie is out of the bottle.

このニューヨークタイムズのポッドキャスト、後半（15分〜）でとても重要なことを言ってる。

「シャットダウンを徹底しなければしないほど、つまり例外を認めれば認めるほど、感染が広がり、医療機関が飽和し、死者が増え、経済を再始動するのに時間がかかる」とhttps://t.co/21AwdJu0FI

— Dr. RawheaD@🏠 (@RawheaD) March 25, 2020

Michael Barbaro
Knowing that we don’t have a magic wand but wish we did, what do we do? What’s the playbook for how to keep people away from each other in the United States, given where the virus is?

Donald G. Mcneil Jr.
As much as possible, we have to stop everything in places where we know the virus is. That is what China did. They knew the virus was incredibly hot in Wuhan and the surrounding province, and so they put that entire province on lockdown. Unfortunately, that means not just stopping all air travel, it means basically stopping all travel.

Michael Barbaro
Hm.

Donald G. Mcneil Jr.
I mean, people can’t be together on buses. People can’t be together on planes. People can’t be together in cars, unless it’s just them and they’re going to socially isolate together when they get to the end of their journey, and stay in place for, unfortunately, an indefinite amount of time. The loosey goosier the freeze is, the longer it lasts. And the longer it’s going to take us to get our economy started again. Because the looser it is, the more transmission there is. The more transmission there is, the more people end up overcrowding hospitals. The more people overcrowd hospitals, the more people die.

Michael Barbaro
OK, so that’s transportation. And you’re suggesting that, in many ways, we have to further restrict that. What about businesses? What about restaurants all over the country? Do they need to be shut down?

Donald G. Mcneil Jr.
Yes, all of these things. Transportation, restaurants all over the country, schools all over the country, workplaces all over the country, bars and restaurants all over the country. And different places are turning into hotspots spots even as we speak, because people are now traveling all over the country and still spreading the virus, starting new clusters. The only way to get on top of this disease is to stop the clusters.

Michael Barbaro
In this scenario that you’re describing, what can be open? What’s an acceptable reason for anyone to be out and about?

Donald G. Mcneil Jr.
Doctors, nurses, people who work in the health care field. Police, fire, the people who keep the water mains open and the electrical grid running and Wi-Fi reaching houses. And food delivery and medicine delivery. That’s the ideal. Those are the only people who are allowed out and that keep the country functioning. We need people to freeze in place, and we need to make sure they have enough calories and water and medicine to stay alive.

Michael Barbaro
Hm.

Donald G. Mcneil Jr.
You know, not that they are worried about how their business is running and how their investments are going or whether or not they’re collecting their rents. And we have to do things like tell landlords that they can’t collect their rents, tell banks that they can’t collect their mortgages. The idea is to keep the country alive until the virus slows down. It may be impossible, but if you want to try to use any sort of social distancing tactic, it has to be much more intense than it is now, because we’re not slowing the virus. It’s still spreading wildly.



Michael Barbaro
That’s pretty depressing, because it means that there’s almost nothing we can do right now. That the genie is out of the bottle,the horses have left the barn,the pandemic is too deeply in our system.