オミクロンの “fat tail”とは

各国でオミクロンの波がピークを越える。それでも、フランスが凄まじい。日米の逆転は続いているが、これを見ると日本でも一月くらいで鎮火するでしょう。インドの抵抗力が強いが、これはデルタの波の時にワクチンが間に合わず、バタバタ死んで、強い人しか生き残っていないからだろう。 pic.twitter.com/j2vMcdR6PC

— buvery (@buvery) February 17, 2022

 沖縄県の新規感染者数

沖縄みていると、一月じゃ無理かも・・・という感じだね。

Omicron’s ‘fat tail:’ Why aren’t COVID infections falling faster?

Florida’s omicron wave isn’t receding as quickly as experts had hoped.

Updated Feb. 10

Health experts then predicted that the highly contagious variant would rapidly burn through the state’s population and depart as quickly as it had arrived. But the omicron wave has stuck around longer than predicted, exhibiting what experts call a “fat tail” — meaning infections aren’t going down as fast as they went up.

Hladish offered some theories as to why omicron has lingered longer than experts predicted. One is that the new BA.2 subvariant — dubbed “stealth” omicron — could be spreading far more widely than believed.

Another possible explanation is that Floridians dropped their guard against omicron too soon. 

 He raised another possible factor: Florida’s recent chilly weather forced residents indoors after omicron’s peak, and that could have made it easier for people to continue to infect each other.

理論的には増減は対称的になるはずだが、オミクロンはそうなっていない。仮説としては、

１）より感染力のつよいBA２変異種におきかわっている　

２）規制の解除が早すぎた

３）寒くて部屋にとどまる人たち多い。

などがあげられている。