the "demographic headwinds" would continue to be a drag on China's economy.

中国の名目GDPは2030年前半に米国を上回るが、その後中国の労働人口が急速に減少し2050年前後に再び逆転する。岸田首相の元ネタ原丈人はリーマンショック後の2009年に「新しい資本主義」を出版し、米国型資本主義の没落を予言したが、その後も米国（特にGAFAM）は勝ち続け、22世紀も米国の世紀になる。 pic.twitter.com/JaBRoM7csc

— H.S. Kim (@xcvbnm67890) February 3, 2022

ここらへん予想は 

 China Won't Overtake U.S. as World's Largest Economy: Forecast

BY BRENDAN COLE ON 2/19/21 

He said that the "demographic headwinds" would continue to be a drag on China's economy. "There's a chance that China makes it to number one, then falls back again as this demographic drag increases," he added.

 Why ageing China won’t overtake the US economy as the world’s biggest – now or in the future

Growth trajectories must take into account that China is ageing faster than the US. The experiences of Japan, Taiwan and South Korea bear out the correlation between growth and demographics, and economists optimistic about China’s growth prospects should take note

Yi Fuxian

Published: 1:00am, 29 Mar, 2019

By David Manners 19th August 2019

China GDP to overtake USA in 2030s but USA will overtake China in 2060s

China’s GDP will overtake the USA’s in the first half of the 2030s, while Japan’s GDP will be overtaken by India in the 2020s and by Germany in the 2040s, says a report from the Japan Centre for Economic Research.

However, says the JCER,  closed systems  – e.g. preferential treatment given to domestic companies and restrictions on data outflow – will hinder China’s productivity and the US will catch up with China by 2060.

いろいろあるようだね。中国については少子高齢化、中国企業優遇、統計データの信用できなさ、などが成長を阻害している、という指摘がある。 

　人口問題は日本も他人事ではない。