"The problem for Russia is how to turn a military victory into a political victory"

ロシアにとって最大の問題は、大規模侵攻であれ小規模侵攻であれ、軍事的勝利をいかにして政治的勝利に結びつけるかという点にある。（ローレンス・フリードマン）

— OKUYAMA Masashi ┃奥山真司 (@masatheman) February 10, 2022

How will the Russia-Ukraine Crisis end?Lawrence FreedmanFeb 5

The problem  for Russia, whether with a major or minor invasion, is how to turn a military victory into a political victory. The challenges facing an occupying force have been well documented, and Russia should appreciate them, yet a largely punitive operation seems pointless as it would invite international condemnation while leaving the Ukrainians angry and even less likely to agree to whatever Russia demanded of them.

The most plausible military action would be in the areas close to the border and in and around the separatist enclaves. Recent reports suggest that the Ukrainians are most concerned about, and believe the Russians are most ready for, this sort of action. This is the area where if the Russians planned to fabricate an incident to create a pretext for invasion, as the US government recently alleged it might, it would be easiest to do so.