U.S. policymakers failed to contain the rapid rise of China

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U.S. policymakers failed to contain the rapid rise of China. Now, they confront a competitor that may be even more powerful than the Soviet Union at the peak of the Cold War, argues John J. Mearsheimer. https://t.co/AXhQNqs7by

— Foreign Affairs (@ForeignAffairs) October 19, 2021

As the years went on, it became clear that engagement was a failure. China’s economy experienced unprecedented economic growth, but the country did not turn into a liberal democracy or a responsible stakeholder. To the contrary, Chinese leaders view liberal values as a threat to their country’s stability, and as rulers of rising powers normally do, they are pursuing an increasingly aggressive foreign policy. There is no way around it: engagement was a colossal strategic mistake.

 Communism matters even less in contemporary China, which is best understood as an authoritarian state that embraces capitalism. Americans should wish that China were communist; then it would have a lethargic economy.

 But there is an “ism” that China has in spades, one that is likely to exacerbate its rivalry with the United States: nationalism.

At best, this rivalry can be managed in the hope of avoiding a war. That would require Washington to maintain formidable conventional forces in East Asia to persuade Beijing that a clash of arms would at best yield a Pyrrhic victory. Convincing adversaries that they cannot achieve quick and decisive wins deters wars. Furthermore, U.S. policymakers must constantly remind themselves—and Chinese leaders—about the ever-present possibility of nuclear escalation in wartime. Nuclear weapons, after all, are the ultimate deterrent. Washington can also work to establish clear rules of the road for waging this security competition—for example, agreements to avoid incidents at sea or other accidental military clashes. If each side understands what crossing the other side’s redlines would mean, war becomes less likely.

　中国が責任ある利害関係者になってくれると期待して連携・協調してきたが、結局中国は、強い民族主義をともなう独裁的資本主義国家になってアメリカの地位を脅かしているだけ。 

　アメリカの残された道は、核戦争がおきないように注意しながら、東アジアに大量の通常兵器を配備し、偶発的な事故がおきないように中国とルール整備をしていくことだ、と。

ーーーーこうなることはわかっていたのだけど、時は既に遅し。愚かな親分の限界を知っておかなければならない。

　核兵器が最大の抑止策とわかっていながら日本に核武装をすすめないはこの期に及んでいまだに自分の相対的地位を維持せんがためだろう。同盟国である日本を核武装して、日本といっしょに世界の民主主義体制を守ろうという気概がない。

　アメリカとも少し距離をおいて独自の軍事力、外交政策をとる時代がやってきている。