効果的な「自粛」「ロックダウン」の検証も必要

メディアがそろそろ検証をはじめたようだな。事実だから隠しようもない。

「The Lockdowns Weren’t Worth It（ロックダウンに価値はなかった）」

インペリアルカレッジによる予測では、200万人以上のアメリカ人が数か月で死亡する可能性があると予測されていた。
1-6https://t.co/vbf1iH1eN0

— 鈴木敏仁 (@bingsuzuki) March 14, 2021

検証は必要だと思うけど、 

Sweden was the first to learn this lesson, but many other countries have confirmed it. Initially held up as a disaster by many in the pro-lockdown crowd, Sweden has ended up with a per capita death rate indistinguishable from that of the European Union. In the U.S., Georgia’s hands-off policies were once called an “experiment in human sacrifice” by the Atlantic. But like Sweden, Georgia today has a per capita death rate that is effectively the same as the rest of the country.

まだ、検証というほどのものではないでしょうね。 印象かな。

16 November 2020

Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions

Taken together, the social distancing and movement-restriction measures discussed above can therefore be seen as the ‘nuclear option’ of NPIs: highly effective but causing substantial collateral damages to society, the economy, trade and human rights4

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19

Science  19 Feb 2021:

CONCLUSION

We estimated the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in 41 countries during the first wave of the pandemic. Some interventions were robustly more effective than others

他の検証論文みないとわからんなあ。 

「ロックダウン」で感染者数は減るんだろうけど、社会、経済、人権に与える影響も大きい。

様々な国のロックダウンを方法、厳格さ、社会、経済的、人権的影響など勘案しながら検証し、効果的な自粛、感染予防策を練るのは大事だろうね。