how we ought to respond to an unprovoked Chinese attack against Taiwan

台湾有事にはオーストラリアはどういう風に対処すればいいのか、そろそろ真剣に考えて議論しておくべきでは？という豪シンクタンクのASPIに掲載された論文。いや、日本こそ考えて議論しておくべきなのですが。https://t.co/kxc7ML36TF

— Dr. OKUYAMA Masashi (@masatheman) 2019年11月28日

Like Australia, Taiwan is an island, a democracy, and has a population of almost 25 million. What happens to Taiwan over the next decade is fundamentally important to Australia. It will shape the extent to which the Indo-Pacific preserves space for middle-sized democracies, as well as the credibility of US alliances and whether the regional balance of power is favourable to our interests.

Yet, even as the military balance erodes, the US and Taiwan have the capacity to continue to convince the CCP’s leaders that the costs and risks outweigh the benefits of using a military option. Canberra’s public positioning over Taiwan, insofar as it shapes Beijing’s judgements on whether we would add our forces to, and provide real estate for, a US-led operation, is a small but not insubstantial factor in how the CCP’s top leaders assess the merits of a military move against Taiwan.

　微妙な位置にあるね。

　中国は台湾の独立を許さない。しかし、台湾は、中国に飲み込まれるのは拒絶する。そこで、民主主義を維持しながら、現状維持ができるか、どうか・・・できるように協力する、というのが課題なんだろうね。