米４月には集団免疫説

米国の新型肺炎患者は引き続き減少し続けている。喜ばしい。 https://t.co/0SnCuepVX2

— buvery (@buvery) February 20, 2021

ただ、これワクチンのせいではなく、集団免疫達成しつつあるんじゃないか、という説も。

 We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.

By Marty Makary

Feb. 18, 2021 12:35 pm ET

But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity. Behavior didn’t suddenly improve over the holidays; Americans traveled more over Christmas than they had since March. Vaccines also don’t explain the steep decline in January. Vaccination rates were low and they take weeks to kick in.

I have argued for months that we could save more American lives if those with prior Covid-19 infection forgo vaccines until all vulnerable seniors get their first dose. Several studies demonstrate that natural immunity should protect those who had Covid-19 until more vaccines are available. Half my friends in the medical community told me: Good idea. The other half said there isn’t enough data on natural immunity, despite the fact that reinfections have occurred in less than 1% of people—and when they do occur, the cases are mild.

１月８日以降急速に感染者数が減少しているが、ワクチンの効果がでるのはもっと時間がかかるし、住民の行動が急に変わったとも言えない・・・・感染者が一定以上増えて自然に集団免疫ができて、それで減少しているんではないか、アメリカでは４月には集団免疫を達成するだろう、と、ジョンホプキンズの教授。

　再感染もあるけど、１％未満であり、発症しても症状は軽いから、感染者のワクチン接種は後回しにしたらどうか、と。

 But countries where new variants have emerged, such as the U.K., South Africa and Brazil, are also seeing significant declines in daily new cases. The risk of new variants mutating around the prior vaccinated or natural immunity should be a reminder that Covid-19 will persist for decades after the pandemic is over. It should also instill a sense of urgency to develop, authorize and administer a vaccine targeted to new variants.

変異種の コロナが発生しているところでも感染者数は減少している、と。

ーーーじゃあ、大丈夫なのか、というと、それはコロナと当分付き合わなくてはいけないということだし、変異種のコロナに対応できるワクチンの開発も急務である、ということではある、と。

ーーーまだまだなにも断定できないけど・・・・はやいところ元の生活にもどりたいね。