the history issue is a catalyst, not an underlying cause

Geopolitics Redux: Explaining the Japan-Korea Dispute and Its Implications for Great Power Competition @WarOnTheRocks https://t.co/G65TTBVERq

— mozu (@mozumozumozu) 2019年11月10日

Therefore, while some commentators have expressed frustration over current President Moon Jae-in’s sympathetic stance toward North Korea, his policy has its own logic: to build “a nation that cannot be shaken.” Moon has underscored the importance of “autonomous defense” — the ability of South Korea to defend itself without foreign support — to achieve national sovereignty and strategic independence. In his view, Korea has been invaded and carved up by foreign powers when it was weak; only a strong nation can defend its sovereignty. Unification is required to build a strong and self-reliant nation. But it is only one part, if an essential one. Last year, Moon proposed an 8.2 percent increase in the defense budget for 2019, the largest such increase in a decade

If Moon’s worldview is understandable, his policy is immature at best.

For these reasons, recent South Korean administrations — both conservative and progressive — have courted China. Because of Japan’s difficult ties with China, cultivating differences with it over historical issues is a palatable way to show alignment with China without overtly acting against the United States in the region. Seen in this light, the history issue is a catalyst, not an underlying cause. 

Japan has made a clear choice to strongly align with the United States.

Japan is a seafaring nation that is primarily worried about China. South Korea, on the other hand, sees China as a vital economic partner that can be useful in realizing its most important geopolitical ambition — unifying the Korean Peninsula on its own terms. Issues of history and memory between Seoul and Tokyo are fraught and will make it harder to reconcile competing interests. However, disagreements about history are not the core challenge in Northeast Asia — it’s geopolitics.

自主独立バランサーになるほど強くないこうもりの韓国の悩みどころだね。

韓国はコウモリかもしれんが、韓国にとって、日本はカモだね。ネギ背負った鴨