The United States will eventually forsake Taiwanー“the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”

「台湾海峡で戦争の危険性」　台湾空軍・前副司令官、離島攻撃リスク指摘

February 25, 2014  n

Say Goodbye to Taiwan

by Author(s): John J. Mearsheimer

 While the United States has good reasons to want Taiwan as part of the balancing coalition it will build against China, there are also reasons to think this relationship is not sustainable over the long term. For starters, at some point in the next decade or so it will become impossible for the United States to help Taiwan defend itself against a Chinese attack. Remember that we are talking about a China with much more military capability than it has today.

There is a second reason the United States might eventually forsake Taiwan: it is an especially dangerous flashpoint, which could easily precipitate a Sino-American war that is not in America’s interest. 

In the face of this grim future, Taiwan has three options. First, it can develop its own nuclear deterrent. Nuclear weapons are the ultimate deterrent, and there is no question that a Taiwanese nuclear arsenal would markedly reduce the likelihood of a Chinese attack against Taiwan.

But the problem with this suggestion is that both Beijing and Washington are sure to oppose Taiwan going nuclear.

There are a number of problems with this form of conventional deterrence, which raise serious doubts about whether it can work for Taiwan over the long haul. For starters, the strategy depends on the United States fighting side by side with Taiwan. But it is difficult to imagine American policy makers purposely choosing to fight a war in which the U.S. military is not only going to lose, but is also going to pay a huge price in the process.

as Thucydides argued long ago, in international politics “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”

アメリカを頼っていても独立も現状維持もできないーー残酷な現実だね。

秘密裏に原爆開発とかはできないのかね？