”there are really only two paths toward ending the war”

kazukazu88 Retweeted

戦術核とは何か？プーチンはそれを使うか？プーチンのウクライナ侵攻は、ヨーロッパの紛争における核兵器の使用という最近まで考えられなかった事態をもたらした。AFP通信報道。 https://t.co/lagllIK9ak

— 福田充　Mitsuru Fukuda (@fukuda326) March 24, 2022

当該記事に引用されている記事は・・・怖いね。 ３月８日のガーディアンの記事であるが、

I’ve studied the possible trajectories of the Russia-Ukraine war. None are good Christopher S Chivvis

Amid this escalation, experts can spin out an infinite number of branching scenarios on how this might end. But scores of war games conducted for the US and allied governments and my own experience as the US national intelligence officer for Europe suggest that if we boil it down, there are really only two paths toward ending the war: one, continued escalation, potentially across the nuclear threshold; the other, a bitter peace imposed on a defeated Ukraine that will be extremely hard for the United States and many European allies to swallow.

 Scores of war games carried out by the United States and its allies in the wake of Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine make it clear that Putin would probably use a nuclear weapon if he concludes that his regime is threatened. 

Based on war games I ran in the wake of Putin’s 2014 invasion, a more likely option would be a sudden nuclear test or a high-altitude nuclear detonation that damages the electrical grid over a major Ukrainian or even Nato city. Think of an explosion that makes the lights go out over Oslo.

さまざまな机上演習したところ、結局

１）プーチンが自分の政権に脅威を感じて、核兵器を使う、あるいは

２）ウクライナにはつらい条件で講和条約をのむ。 

ーーこの二つのシナリオしかなく、核兵器を使う場合、突然核実験するか、 高高度核爆発させてウクライナあるいはNATOまで及ぶ電力システムの損傷をねらってくるのではないか、と。

なお、核兵器については、以下参照。 

低出力核兵器

爆発力が小さい核兵器。米国は1994年会計年度国防予算授権法において、核出力5キロトン以下の核兵器と定義している。

Production of new nuclear weapon taking place in Texas PanhandleBy Emily Wilkinson On Feb 18, 2019

The new nuclear weapon, the W76-2, is a low-yield variation of the W76-1 and is intended to launch on the same Trident missile as its predecessor.

Tactical nuclear weapon From Wikipedia

米ソ間の核軍縮協定などでは射距離500km以下のものが戦術核兵器であると定義されている。

Modern tactical nuclear warheads have yields up to the tens of kilotons, or potentially hundreds, several times that of the weapons used in the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

.