”We should begin making arrangements for war-crimes trials”

 

"All of these atrocities made use of chemical weapons, chlorine, sarin gas, in Syria, as well as bombing civilians and hospitals," she said of those wars. "Now, what we see as atrocities, Putin sees as a record of success. Because he has been doing this for 20 years and he has paid no big price domestically. Indeed, he's gotten a boost from the very beginning, when, as you're pointing out, he was coming into the presidency. This cemented his strongman tactics, his fame as a strongman. And he also paid no price internationally. Now, when he annexed Crimea, there were sanctions, but that was a boost of popularity for him. So, what we see as atrocities, he sees as a record of success. Things that have benefited Russia, and him, personally."

チェチェンやシリアの残虐行為でロシアでの支持率はあがっている。

プーチンにとって市民虐殺は成功物語。

Russian elite 'to overthrow Putin' with ex-ally

  2022.03.20 ウクライナ諜報機関、反プーチン勢力が暗殺を画策中で後継者はFSB長官 アレクサンドル・ボルトニコフ

 “Defence is always stronger, but the strongest form of defence is urban, because the urban [environment] gives you ready-made fortifications.”

There is no reason an urban defender should be visible from the sky or street by the approaching attacker. I would defend from inside buildings, because buildings give cover and the enemy can't detect me fast. Please share on Telegram! pic.twitter.com/i9ERRO78xY

— John Spencer (@SpencerGuard) March 6, 2022

 

In such a conducive environment for successful defence, an assault on the Ukrainian capital could be extremely bloody for the Russian army. With the trap set, “You just want them to feed themselves into the wood chipper”, says Spencer. Despite this, Spencer believes taking Kyiv remains a goal for Putin. “War is the politics by other measures. 

That city is so important at this moment because the only goal of the Russian army is [President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy and his government, who are based in Kyiv”, said Spencer.

　首都をとることは元首や政府をとることだから、最重要。しかし、都心は市街そのものが要塞であり、ロシアにとっては過酷な戦闘になる。

 

もはや、誰と戦っているのかはおろか、何を目指しているのかさえわからない。

ロシアの出方、その後の帰趨などを析出した上での停戦・妥協の提案があるならその案を具体的に示すべきで、ツイッターで全力でシャドウボクシングしてもあんまり意味はないと思う。 pic.twitter.com/P7CZ1n8a0m

— nobu akiyama (@nobu_akiyama) March 21, 2022

　戦争ってのはこちらの意思を向こうの政府に暴力、ないし恐喝で、押し付けることだが、国の意思決定機関を手渡したら・・・そりゃまずいでしょ。

 There is no publicly available evidence of the Russians being able to regroup and resupply on a large scale; there is plenty of evidence to the contrary. If the Ukrainians continue to win, we might see more visible collapses of Russian units and perhaps mass surrenders and desertions. Unfortunately, the Russian military will also frantically double down on the one thing it does well—bombarding towns and killing civilians.

 The Ukrainians are doing their part. Now is the time to arm them on the scale and with the urgency needed, as in some cases we are already doing. We must throttle the Russian economy, increasing pressure on a Russian elite that does not, by and large, buy into Vladimir Putin’s bizarre ideology of “passionarity” and paranoid Great Russian nationalism

We should begin making arrangements for war-crimes trials, and begin naming defendants, as we should have done during World War II. Above all, we must announce that there will be a Marshall Plan to rebuild the Ukrainian economy, for nothing will boost their confidence like the knowledge that we believe in their victory and intend to help create a future worth having for a people willing to fight so resolutely for its freedom.

ロシア軍の攻撃は停滞していて、しかも、組織再編したり、供給網がうまく機能する見通しもない一方、ウクライナ軍は勝ち続けている。ロシア軍は市民虐殺にでるだろうが、こちらもウクライナ軍に軍備提供して、ロシア経済をぶっ潰し、プーチンのナショナリズムに引っかからないロシアのエリートたちに圧力かけていくべき。

　戦争犯罪を裁く裁判所を準備し、戦争犯罪の被告人、ウクライナの復興計画を公表して、ウクライナ人たちの勝利への信念を強化していく必要がある、と。

ーーーこれはいい考えだと思うんだけど、

　通常兵器での停滞・行き詰まり→大量破壊兵器の使用

と激化していくんではないか、というのがおれの不安。

 

 “戦場から無言で帰宅”ウクライナ兵の妻「傷だらけでもあなたの愛で生きる」