ロシア軍の撤退が実現するなら 元米大統領特別補佐官が示すシナリオ
Four ways the war in Ukraine might end
By Barry Pavel, Peter Engelke, and Jeffrey Cimmino
Scenario 1: Miracle on the Dnipro
ロシア軍撤退、めでたしめでたし
Scenario 2: A quagmire
a Pyrrhic victory 犠牲が多くて引き合わない勝利
アフガン化
Scenario 3: A new Iron Curtain
バルト三国・スロバキア・ハンガリー・ルーマニアを境に鉄のカーテン
Scenario 4: A NATO-Russia war
NATOロシア戦争
Russia’s Initial Failures Don’t Mean Ukraine Will Survive
Putin’s military may seek to recover from its early mistakes with increased brutality.
But for all of the stories of Russian failure, here is the very bad news: Russia will far more likely respond to battlefield setbacks the way it traditionally has—with overwhelming firepower—than by seeking peace
Putin can still lose by winning. In other words, the cost of his likely battlefield victory could be so great that it ultimately diminishes Russian power or even destabilizes his regime, but even so, imagining a scenario where Ukraine wins outright is difficult.
結果的にロシアが弱体化しても、爆撃を強化してウクライナをボコボコにするだろう、と。
In the view of retired Adm. James G. Stavridis, a former supreme allied commander for Europe, the most probable outcome is a partition of Ukraine. “Putin would take the southeast of the country, and the ethnic Russians would gravitate there,” he told The Times. “The rest of the nation, overwhelmingly Ukrainian, would continue as a sovereign state.”
ウクライナを分割して、ウクライナ南東部をロシアがとってロシア系住民はそちらに移住する、というのが最もありえるのではないか、と。
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