What might an end to Putin’s regime look like?

ロシア政権内部に異変…要人辞任・動静途絶、「クーデター辞さず」観測も

2022/03/26 

 Putin Has Coup-Proofed His Regime

Russian security forces are carefully policed for loyalty.

By Adam E. Casey, a postdoctoral fellow at the Weiser Center for Emerging Democracies at the University of Michigan.

諜報組織と相互監視が厳重なので、クーデーターは不可能ではないがありそうではない、と。

もっとも、

What might an end to Putin’s regime look like? He may not have to look too far afield to find a likely scenario. In fact, the answers could lie in the ouster of a dictator central to the current crisis: Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine. On February 19-20, 2014, Yanukovych ordered his security forces to fire live ammunition on protesters, killing around 70 people. Rather than quelling the protests, however, the repression led to their intensification and the defection of key security services and top figures in the regime. Shortly thereafter, the SBU security service announced it would cease operations against protesters, and the forces guarding the government left their posts. With no security forces remaining willing to repress, Yanukovych fled into exile in Russia.

 Putin’s greatest risk comes not from a coup but from elite defection. Like his old ally Yanukovych, Putin may find that he cannot effectively order sufficient security service repression to stave off protests. Resignations may increase into a cascade of defections by key elites in his regime anxious to not sink with the ship. While the costs of resigning could be serious, they likely pale in comparison to the risks of a failed coup. While they might not oust him themselves, his security services may not save him.

　ウクライナのヤヌコビッチ式の政権崩壊はありえる、と。

　ウクライナではデモが激しくなったが、保安部の要人たちは亡命、治安部隊はデモ鎮圧を放棄、政府を護衛する部隊の要人も辞任。ヤヌコビッチは致し方なくロシアに亡命。

　クーデーターは失敗した場合の危険を考えたら、泥船で沈むより、辞任や亡命のほうがましなのだ、と。