ホワイトハウスへの１３の鍵

 

町山智浩のアメリカの今を知るテレビ#あめしる

-大統領選のノストラダムス-
リクトマン教授の
「ホワイトハウスに行く13の鍵」
によりトランプ陣営に『×』が6つ以上付き再選はないと予測

更に、町山メソッドにより浮動票がトランプに動く事は極めて少ない状態

これは決まったかもしれない
面白い pic.twitter.com/GSpReku9uZ

— ノビータ (@yugo1990nobu) October 23, 2020

Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.

Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Incumbent (party) charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

Challenger (party) charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.