" Indiscriminate Violence won't Incite Insurgent Attacks"

 

民間人への攻撃を詳細に分析した研究では攻撃が成功する可能性があることを確認するものが多い。

例えば緻密な研究の一つとして挙げられるジェイソン・ライアルのものでは、ロシアがチェチェンで村々を砲撃して無差別に暴力を行使した結果として反乱勢力を鎮圧できていたことを実証している。（同上）

— OKUYAMA Masashi ┃奥山真司 (@masatheman) March 10, 2022

Abstract

 

Does a state's use of indiscriminate violence incite insurgent attacks? To date, most existing theories and empirical studies have concluded that such violence is highly counterproductive because it creates new grievances while forcing victims to seek security, if not safety, in rebel arms. This proposition is tested using Russian artillery fire in Chechnya (2000 to 2005) to estimate indiscriminate violence's effect on subsequent patterns of insurgent attacks across matched pairs of similar shelled and nonshelled villages. The findings are counterintuitive. Shelled villages experience a 24 percent reduction in posttreatment mean insurgent attacks relative to control villages. In addition, commonly cited “triggers” for insurgent retaliation, including the lethality and destructiveness of indiscriminate violence, are either negatively correlated with insurgent attacks or statistically insignificant.

つまり、また、無差別攻撃する危険大。

無差別攻撃を受けても絶対「降伏」するな。妥結などもっての他。 最後まで戦いぬけ。正義は勝つ！

とか、極東の人々は叫ぶのだろうか？