"Ukraine is winning this war only on Twitter, not on the battlefield."

『いいね！戦争』『戦争請負会社』『ロボット兵士の戦争』等で知られるP.W.シンガーへのインタビュー。ベストな人引っ張ってきたなあ　→

SNS情報戦「ウクライナ勝利」　戦略家が語るプーチン氏の「崩壊」：朝日新聞デジタル https://t.co/Snzn7dkIso #ウクライナ情勢

— dragoner＠C99金曜東マ12a (@dragoner_JP) March 12, 2022

Valid points all https://t.co/bjaTODftMz

— Peter W. Singer (@peterwsinger) March 12, 2022

 

Russia has a lot of weapons that they haven’t used yet, but there are a couple of factors here. First of all, Ukraine is winning this war only on Twitter, not on the battlefield. They’re not winning this war. Russia is advancing very well in the south, which is an extremely valuable place because of the Black Sea littoral and the ports. They are advancing in the east. If the southern and eastern advances meet up, they will encircle and cut off the main forces of the Ukrainian Army. What’s failed so far is the Russian attempt to take Kyiv in a lightning advance. Otherwise, their war is unfolding well. It’s only a couple of weeks in; wars last much longer.

Moreover, the largest and most important consideration is that Russia cannot successfully occupy Ukraine. They do not have the scale of forces. They do not have the number of administrators they’d need or the coöperation of the population. They don’t even have a Quisling yet.

ウクライナは情報戦では勝っているが戦場で勝っているわけではない。

ロシアの進撃はうまくいっている。しかし、ロシアはウクライナ を占領できない。それだけの軍隊がない、と。