2022年3月20日日曜日

”Zelensky will have to make some bitter concessions in return for the withdrawal of Russian troops. ”

https://twitter.com/masatheman

 The longer the fighting drags on, the more intense the international opprobrium and, potentially, the greater the resistance to the war among Russians back home.


Some form of compromise peace might eventually result.

 戦闘が長引けば、国際的な非難も高まり、ロシア国内での気運も高まり、ある種の妥協的平和に至るかもしれない、と。

ーーー「妥協」だって・・・・

 For as long as I can remember, Poles have been making me feel guilty about how little the West did to make good on the security guarantee Britain gave to defend Poland in 1939 and how we abandoned them to Stalin at Yalta in 1945. The argument was identical to that used by Zelensky today: you have abandoned us to fight alone in defence of freedom, Europe and the West.

なるほどね。以前はポーランド見捨てたわけか、欧州は。

  Behind this is the hard fact that many EU leaders, including Emmanuel Macron, don’t actually want Ukraine to be a member of the EU – ever. 

ウクライナをEUには入れたくないんだ?特にフランスは? 

Our immediate goal must be to ensure Putin gets hurt as much as possible and the Ukrainians as little. But at that difficult moment, Zelensky will have to make some bitter concessions in return for the withdrawal of Russian troops. 

They will probably include neutrality – as the Ukrainian president already hinted on Tuesday, saying Ukraine will not be in Nato – and some sort of conditional or de facto acceptance of Putin’s totally illegitimate territorial seizures in Crimea and the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces

Against such a loss, Zelensky badly needs some big win to show his people. The reconstruction plan and European perspective is that win

 おれはこれは現実的だとは思うんだが、反橋下派の人たちにはもってのほかなんだろうな。問題はプーチンに最大の危害を与えて、ウクライナ人への危害を最小化することだ、と。そのために、ゼレンスキーは、中立化、クリミヤ、ドネツク、ルハンツクの露によるーー不当だけどもーー領土掌握を条件付きで、あるいは実質的に認めるような譲歩をしなくてはならない、と。それをしてもウクライナの勝利と思ってもらえるように、西側が寛大な再建計画を提供してあげるべきだ、と。 

 ちなみにBBCで在米ウクライナ大使は領土の譲歩はもってのほかみたいなことを言っていたね。


Reducing energy dependency, increasing defence capabilities and integrating refugees will not be cheap. 

The fear of a direct clash with Russia might yet turn governments and public opinion in some member-states against more military support for Ukraine. 

While EU citizens have been eager to help their fellow Europeans, the 2015-2016 crisis shows that the mood can change quickly. 

燃料費上昇、難民の受け入れで国民の不満が募り、また、ロシアの餌食になりそうだと思ったら、ウクライナへの支援に反対する人たちもでてくるわけだね。

 

The leader also becomes more distant and isolated, relying on a smaller and smaller group of trusted advisers to make decisions. Most of those individuals remain at the table because they display absolute loyalty.

This small circle, in turn, acts as the leader’s window to the world, leaving much dependent on how accurate a depiction of external reality its members choose to provide. Such an opaque decision-making process makes it difficult for external observers to interpret signals from the central leadership.

内輪だけの情報になって現実と合っているかチェックできなくなるし、外からはその決定過程が不透明で予測不可能になる、と。

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