終戦のシナリオ

 

Looking for an Endgame in Ukraine

By Ross Douthat

A brutal Russian victory and grinding occupation

The harsh reality is that despite their own blunders and heroic Ukrainian opposition, the Russians are winning the actual war at the moment, still taking territory and still pushing forward. At the same time, the idea that they’re going to simply pacify an entire country roused to self-defense with this army, this scale of military force, seems even more unlikely than it did before the war began. So a world of guerrilla warfare backed by the West and run by a Ukrainian government-in-exile looms in a future where Russia wins the war outright.

Unfortunately it also leaves most of Ukraine under Russia’s boot and keeps people fighting and dying for years if not decades. And then, too, if we end up sustaining the financial and cultural isolation we’re imposing on Russia right now, we’ll basically guarantee that the current Russia-China alignment becomes a true axis, even a Eurasian financial and economic system unto itself, with Russia as the weaker client but with Chinese power benefiting immensely.

Consider the following hypothetical: Over the next week, Russia fails to take Kyiv but does succeed in taking Mariupol in Ukraine’s southeast, establishing control of a land bridge between Russian-controlled Crimea and the secessionist pseudo-republics in the Donbas region. At that point there is a real cease-fire and peace negotiations begin.

But who actually has the upper hand? Putin offers to trade the territory he’s taken for some of his war aims — recognition of Russian rule over Crimea, neutral status for Ukraine, a repudiation of NATO membership. The Ukrainians and their outraged Western supporters offer to end the war on Russia’s economy in exchange for an unconditional Russian retreat and dismiss the idea of rewarding a criminal invasion in any way.

第一のシナリオのプーチン政権崩壊はないな。

第二のシナリオの停戦して、もしも、ロシアの案が１）ウクライナ中立２）NATO参加放棄　３）クリミアのロシア領化の承認　だったら・・・妥協としてありえなくはないとは思うんだけどね、おれは。しかし、ここまできたら、そもそも、そんな提案はしてこない可能性が大きい。

第三のシナリオの長期化する場合でもロシアが要所をおさえ、ウクライナがゲリラ戦で数年・・・・その間も制裁は続くから中国ロシア関係は強化される、と。