核兵器の使用にまでいたるエスカレーションか、ウクライナの屈辱的降伏しかない、と。

kazukazu88さんがリツイート

 

Chivvisさんによるなかなかに絶望的な分析。曰く、核兵器の使用にまでいたるエスカレーションか、ウクライナの屈辱的降伏しか考えられるシナリオがない、と。本件に関する米政府の政策シミュレーションの結果はいつもそうだった、とのこと。https://t.co/oONLQMO73S

— Michito Tsuruoka / 鶴岡路人 (@MichitoTsuruoka) March 9, 2022

there are really only two paths toward ending the war: one, continued escalation, potentially across the nuclear threshold; the other, a bitter peace imposed on a defeated Ukraine that will be extremely hard for the United States and many European allies to swallow.

Putin deliberately frames his operation in Ukraine in the same way that the United States has framed its own regime-change operations in Kosovo, Iraq, and Libya, charging that Ukraine has committed human rights violations and is a terrorist state. 

 Judging from how things stand now, Putin, having invested so much in this war already, seems unlikely to settle for anything less than the complete subjugation of the Ukrainian government.

If the current uneven pace of Russian military progress doesn’t accomplish the job, the most likely strategy for doing this is to make an example of a city like Kharkiv, leveling it as if it were Grozny or Aleppo, both cities that Russia has brutally destroyed in the recent past, and then threatening to burn Kyiv to the ground. 

 Scores of war games carried out by the United States and its allies in the wake of Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine make it clear that Putin would probably use a nuclear weapon if he concludes that his regime is threatened

Those war games indicated that the best U.S. response to this kind of attack would be first to demonstrate U.S. resolve with a response in kind, aimed at a target of similar value, followed by restraint and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate

 But the most difficult challenge lies a little further down the road with the scenario described above: how to respond if Russia imposes a puppet regime in Ukraine.

 It would face extremely high levels of pressure from European capitals, Ukrainian lobbies, and others to reject the puppet government and fight on, perhaps by recognizing a Ukrainian government-in-exile

　コソボやイラク、リビアに対してアメリカがそうしたように、プーチンはウクライナは人権侵害をしているテロリスト国家だという枠組みでウクライナに侵攻。

　これだけ軍備力を投資した以上、ウクライナ政府を屈服させる以外の道はプーチンには残っていない。その進捗がおくれれば、チェチェンやシリアでやったようにキエフをメチャクチャの廃墟にして、ゼレンスキー政権を引きずり下ろし傀儡政権を樹立。

　そこで、西側は反乱軍を支援してロシアを追い詰めるがプーチンは自分の政権が危うくなったと感じれば小型核兵器を使用。核兵器を使用されたら被爆地域と同じ程度の価値の地域に核攻撃しかえすしかない。

　傀儡政権についてどうするかも問題。ウクライナ外で亡命政府をつくって戦いを継続するしかない、と。