プーチンが勝つ見込みはないが、「小さく負ける」ことは拒否するだろう。負けるときは、世界を巻き添えにして「大きく負ける」。そのとき核が使われる確率は小さくない。 https://t.co/9muPvmOHKk
— 池田信夫 (@ikedanob) March 9, 2022
Given the resistance of Ukrainians everywhere to the Russian occupation, for Putin to “win” militarily on the ground his army will need to subdue every major city in Ukraine. That includes the capital, Kyiv — after probably weeks of urban warfare and massive civilian casualties. In short, it can be done only by Putin and his generals perpetrating war crimes not seen in Europe since Hitler. It will make Putin’s Russia a permanent international pariah.
Putin’s Russia is not too big to fail. It is, however, too big to fail in a way that won’t shake the whole rest of the world.
市民虐殺で、ヒットラー以来みたことのないような戦争犯罪が行われて キエフを鎮圧
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