'More Difficult To Watch In The Weeks To Come'

フリードマン教授の素晴らしい分析。必読。ロシアは準備した兵力の9割以上をコミットしてなお、何ら目的を達していない。軍事的に制圧したところも政治的に掌握していない。もはや西部に回す兵力はないので、ウクライナはキエフが陥落しても、リヴィウを中心に立て直せる 1/3 https://t.co/gsdAM3xR6r

— Yoko Iwama 岩間陽子 (@2000grips) March 6, 2022

Russia has now committed well over 90 percent of the massive force that was gathered around Ukraine before 24 February, and is still unable to take its early objectives, let alone work out, should they be taken, how they might be occupied and then governed. This suggests there is not much spare capacity for the western parts of the country, which is where Ukrainian forces, commanded from Lviv, could regroup with supplies coming in from Poland, Slovakia and possibly Hungary, if Kyiv were to fall.

 

There have been a variety of estimates about how long the Russian army can keep this up, especially if Kyiv and Kharkiv continue to resist. Without a major resupply effort it has been put at no more than 3 weeks. The Russians have not planned for a long war nor made provisions to sustain it over time.

市民がいるキエフに猛攻撃されて、リヴィヴに撤退。そこから立て直せる・・・と言ってもそれまでに町はめちゃくちゃにされ市民の犠牲も悲惨なことになる。　

 'More Difficult To Watch In The Weeks To Come'

ため息しかでない。