Put squeeze on Russian oligarchs

 

池田信夫 Retweeted

「プーチンは国内の反発を切り抜けられるというのが通説。しかしこの戦争には国内でも有力な反対派がいる。欧米の汚職撲滅運動と制裁が強化されれば、露エリートは現政権は国益を追求しないと判断し、ウからの撤退・資産凍結解除を促す指導者を求めるだろう」との論考。https://t.co/HuQ0GrCazu

— 佐々木 れな/ Rena Sasaki (@rena_in_dc) March 2, 2022

There are good reasons to believe that Putin can withstand the backlash from his war

Putin has also gone to great lengths to inoculate himself against another threat: elite defection. 

But there are also good reasons that the tides might turn.

 So far, Russia’s elite have never had to choose between the life they wanted and Putin. But Chubais’s and Deripaska’s comments hint that could change as the effect of the sanctions sets in, especially if they are coupled with stepped-up anticorruption efforts by the United States and Europe. If they are squeezed tight enough, Russia’s elites may come to decide that Putin can no longer guarantee their future interests and try to replace him with a leader who would withdraw from Ukraine and prompt the West to unfreeze their assets.

　国益というより・・・ロシアの大企業家たちの利益にならないとなれば、ウクライナから撤退して、自分たちの資産凍結解除を西側に促すようような指導者をプーチンの代わりに置こうとするだろう、というだろうね。

　だったら、企業家の資産に徹底的に制裁を加えるべきだね。