”there was an unequivocal understanding that expanding NATO risked an eventual conflict with Russia, especially over Ukraine”

 

The Ukraine catastrophe and how we got here: Chronicle of a war foretold

youtube でウクライナ問題について、クリスヘッジがでていたのでその部分だけ視聴。

I was there for the end of the Cold War — and we all understood how the new peace could collapse. We didn't stop it

By CHRIS HEDGES

PUBLISHED FEBRUARY 26, 2022 1

In a classified diplomatic cable obtained and released by WikiLeaks, dated Feb. 1, 2008, which was written from Moscow and addressed to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the NATO-European Union Cooperative, the National Security Council, the Russia Moscow Political Collective, the secretary of defense and the secretary of state, there was an unequivocal understanding that expanding NATO risked an eventual conflict with Russia, especially over Ukraine:

Not only does Russia perceive encirclement [by NATO], and efforts to undermine Russia's influence in the region, but it also fears unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences which would seriously affect Russian security interests. Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face. ... Dmitri Trenin, Deputy Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, expressed concern that Ukraine was, in the long-term, the most potentially destabilizing factor in U.S.-Russian relations, given the level of emotion and neuralgia triggered by its quest for NATO membership. ... Because membership remained divisive in Ukrainian domestic politics, it created an opening for Russian intervention. Trenin expressed concern that elements within the Russian establishment would be encouraged to meddle, stimulating U.S. overt encouragement of opposing political forces, and leaving the U.S. and Russia in a classic confrontational posture.

 The Obama administration, not wanting to further inflame tensions with Russia, blocked arms sales to Kyiv. But this act of prudence was abandoned by the Trump and Biden administrations. Weapons from the U.S. and U.K. have poured into Ukraine, part of the $1.5 billion in promised military aid. The equipment includes hundreds of sophisticated Javelins and NLAW anti-tank weapons despite repeated protests by Moscow. 

２００８年のロシアからの電信でNATO東方拡大をロシアは恐れていたし、また、NATO加入を巡ってウクライナで紛争がおき、ロシアが介入せざるえなくなるとロシアは恐れていた、と。

ーー２００８年ですでに今日の危険は予想されていたわけだね。

 

軍産複合体は現在、アメリカ経済のわずか１％にすぎない。https://t.co/2tcAUq5qup

— 町山智浩 (@TomoMachi) April 15, 2022

という指摘もあるが、NATO拡大で

There would be no peace dividend. The expansion of NATO swiftly became a multi-billion-dollar bonanza for the corporations that had profited from the Cold War. (Poland, for example, just agreed to spend $6 billion on M1 Abrams tanks and other U.S. military equipment.)

　軍需産業はめちゃ儲かっていた、と指摘。　上記動画でも、戦争で儲かるのは、軍需産業と石油産業という指摘をしている。この文章の後に、

 

If Russia would not acquiesce to again being the enemy, then Russia would be pressured into becoming the enemy. 

ロシアが敵であることを嫌がっても、敵であるようにしたてあげなくてはならない、と。

　文脈からの含意とすれば、軍需産業のためには敵が必要・・・みたいなかんじなのかなああーーーこれはどうだろうね。そこまで含意してしまうと陰謀論的になってくる。

　ちなみに、西側の挑発があったとはいえ、挑発にのって侵略してしまったロシアが悪い、という指摘も動画ではしている。