Indifference to human life has been a hallmark of Russian strategy throughout this war

本日更新されたローレンス・フリードマンの最新分析。
以下のスレッドで重要箇所をいくつか訳して紹介。https://t.co/YgRV2CC3ye

— Okuyama, Masashi ┃奥山真司 (@masatheman) April 6, 2022

casus belli　 開戦事由（かいせんじゆう）とは、戦争行動の正当化の理由を意味する国際法上の用語。

Having now seen what happens when Russia occupies Ukrainian territory, Western governments know that they cannot push President Zelensky to make any territorial concessions simply to bring the war to an end

It may still be too much to expect to recover Crimea, but for Kyiv it is now imperative that all the Donbas, including the enclaves in Donetsk and Luhansk, remain as part of Ukraine, by force of arms if not by diplomacy.

ロシア軍に占領されると民間人虐殺は必至。西側はウクライナの一部領土は諦めろとはいえないし、ウクライナも、クリミア奪還できるかどうかまだ、分からないが、ドンパス全地域の奪還が必須となった、と。

ーーーやらせるつもりなんだろうな。

 This new stage of the war, however, promises to be much harder for Ukraine

Taking over the Donbas now would mean oppressing a hostile population, reconstructing shattered towns and cities, and guarding against future Ukrainian military action.

Maybe he will soon lose interest in a land grab but satisfy himself with a de-industrialised and impoverished Ukraine, its people traumatised and its infrastructure broken. There are suggestions from American intelligence, who seem to have some good sources, that Putin has set a target for Russian forces to get the whole operation concluded in time for 9th May, the anniversary of the conclusion of the Second World war, and normally marked by a big parade in Moscow. There is another round of intense military action to come

５月９日の戦勝記念までにどでかい軍事行動を一発かまして、それをもって全作戦終了させるのでは、という情報もある、と。

Donbas: Why Russia is trying to encircle Ukraine's east

By Paul Kirby

BBC News

Published23 hours ago

If Russia were to conquer both big regions, it would give Vladimir Putin some sort of achievement from Russia's war. The next step would then be to annexe Donbas, just like he did with Crimea after a discredited referendum in 2014.

And if it came before 9 May, he would even be able to display on Victory Day, when Russia's military still celebrates the defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945.

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says if Ukraine holds on to Slovyansk, Russia's campaign to seize both regions "will likely fail".

 スラヴャンスクの戦いが、今後の命運をきめるかもな。