池田信夫 Retweeted
年金制度の生みの親・花澤武雄年金課長
— ひろゆき (@hirox246) February 2, 2023
「預かった年金はどんどん使って構わない。厚生年金保険基金とか財団とか作ったら、厚生省OBが勤め口に困らない。お金が無くなったら賦課式で集めればいい。」
年金設立当初の目標通りに年金を払う額は増えて受け取り額は減ってます。pic.twitter.com/f242PeqPst
なんじゃこれは！
池田信夫 blog : 「大学無償化」は社会的な浪費であるhttps://t.co/2HrAktvgd2
— 池田信夫 (@ikedanob) February 2, 2023
The Case Against Education wiki
The Case Against Education: Why the Education System Is a Waste of Time and Money[1] is a book written by libertarian economist Bryan Caplan and published in 2018 by Princeton University Press.
政府は最小限であるべき、とするリバタリアンによる著作となれば、政府支援による大学無償化に反対するのは無理はないーーというか結論は見えている。
東京都や大阪府が大学を無償化するが、この問題についての経済学者の意見はほぼ一致している：
レビューをみると、
Positive
Robin Hanson at Overcoming Bias[17]
Naomi Schaefer Riley in The Wall Street Journal[18]
Gene Epstein in City Journal[19]
Mixed
Stephen L. Carter in Bloomberg Opinion[20]
"I'm not sure he's right, especially about education being almost entirely for the purpose of signaling, but goodness does he make a strong case. Agree with him or not, you'll never look at the schools and colleges in quite the same way."
Tyler Cowen in Marginal Revolution[21]
Ilya Somin at Reason[22]
Negative
Sarah Carr in The Washington Post[23]
Sean Illing at Vox[24]
Joshua Kim at Inside Higher Ed[25]
評価が一致しているとも思えないが・・・
Why this economist thinks public education is mostly pointless
Vox インタビュー記事でわかりやすい。
I want to say all of the above, but we don’t really have that much data for anything before high school. I focused on high school and beyond. Kindergarten through 8th grade tends to serve as a daycare center for kids while their parents are at work.
大学どころか、高校も無意味だ、と。中学までは 教育としては無意味かもしれないが、親が働いているときに面倒みてくれるデイケアセンターの役割は果たしていると。
I also worry that a massive public disinvestment in education would widen many of the inequalities that already exist in this country. In your ideal world, people with money would continue to receive a good education and the people who don’t would be left further and further behind.
批判として、公教育はなくなっても私立の教育は残るわけで、そうなると、金持ちの子息は高等教育をうけて、貧乏人の子息はなんの教育も受けないことになって格差が拡大するのではないか、と。
Is education a waste of time and money?
こちらは、Wapo
Caplan is more optimistic about vocational than academic education, arguing that it does more to improve high school graduation rates, raise income and reduce unemployment. Yet even improved or expanded technical training is not worth an outlay of taxpayer money. In his view, “Government should get out of the way and take stock of all the opportunities the labor market provides.” That includes reinstating child labor.
With this largely macro lens, he misses an important opportunity to scrutinize the startling gaps in educational quality across states, districts, institutions, schools and teachers.
As in “Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids,” his argument seems to hinge on a dangerous faith in biological determinism that borders on a defense of institutionalized classism. ..... his proposal would transform an admittedly deeply unequal society into a serfdom — more permanently consigning low-income citizens to minimum-wage jobs that require next to no literacy or numeracy skills. Or no jobs at all.
データの肌理が粗い、ということとやはり格差の拡大を懸念している。リバタリアンとして、政府の介入を毛嫌いし、児童労働禁止まで政府のおせっかいだからといって復活。公教育を受けられない市民が最低賃金の仕事しかもらえないどころか最悪無職に終わり、現在はただでさえ格差社会なのにそれが農奴性社会のような階級社会に舞い戻ってしまうのではないか、と。
ーーーたしかに高等教育では無駄も多いが、リバタリアンの言うようにやっていたら、格差拡大は必定だろうね。
海外の目は日銀人事より、過剰債務をどう処理するかに向けられている。債券市場との全面戦争は危険だ。 https://t.co/ZQWF92FdQc
— 池田信夫 (@ikedanob) February 2, 2023
Dovish vs Hawkish: Key Monetary Policy Differences
Hawks are primarily concerned about limiting inflation. They trend toward raising interest rates to restrict the supply of money. Doves, on the other hand, typically try to get interest rates to go lower. They want an increase in the money supply, more economic growth and, particularly, more jobs.
The first question for the new governor will be when to holster the bazooka.
Tightening too much, too soon or waiting too long to act would be missteps with grave consequences.
黒田バズーガの矛を収めて、引き締めをいつやるか、そのタイミングを問題にしている。
Some economists see Britain’s meltdown under Liz Truss as a cautionary tale, highlighting the importance of maintaining confidence in the government’s bona fides. They worry about unknown unknowns in the financial system. Even so, the Japanese government has announced plans to double military and child-care spending, without presenting a credible plan for financing these increases.
トラス政権の失敗が反面教師になるという経済学者もいる、と。
トラス政権はどうだったのか、というと
Truss resigns: A timeline of key events in three months of UK political chaos
Access to the comments COMMENTS
By Alasdair Sandford • Updated: 21/10/2022
Monday 3 October:Kwarteng announces a U-turn on plans to cut the 45p rate of tax on earnings above €172,000 a year, which had been dubbed a tax cut for the rich.
Tuesday 4 October: Truss faces a fresh political rebellion after refusing to rule out cutting benefits to the UK's poorest people, in an interview with the BBC.
Monday 17 October: The new Chancellor of the Exchequer announces a complete reversal of Liz Truss' controversial "mini-budget" that caused such turmoil, having warned at the weekend that "difficult decisions" lie ahead involving potential tax rises and spending cuts. In a BBC interview that evening Truss recognises "mistakes" and says "sorry".
減税ーー特に富裕層に対する減税ーーそして貧困層に対する給付金削減を拒否する政策が反発を食らってトラス政権は終了
Why Did Liz Truss’ Budget do so Much Damage…?
And huge debt also means huge annual interest payments, and so when bond rates increased by even just 1% as a result of the tragic Tory mini-budget, this means the UK government has to find tens of billions more every year just to service the interest on that debt, and this means less of our tax money going on public services
Essentially the markets (i.e. the pension funds, countries and other companies who held UK Bonds (or debt)) looked at the Tory’s economic plan and said ‘there’s no way this is sustainable – you’re committing to running a national deficit of £100 billion a year with no indication of how you’re going to pay for it, which means you’re going to be less likely to pay back our debt, or the interest on our bonds’
These policies which have since been reversed in a U-turn only two weeks after they were first announced (which completely undermines Liz Truss’ credibility as a leader and neoliberal economics more generally)
イギリス国債を保有している年金基金や 国、企業がトラスのやりかたじゃ政府が持たない、と。巨額な赤字になることがわかっていながら、どうやってそれを補うかも示さないとなれば、われわれの国債も国債の利子も支払ってもらえるかわからん、ということでパニックになったようですね。
これでトラスの指導者としての信頼も、さらにもっと一般には、ネオリベ経済も弱体化した、と。
トラスというのはネオリベだったんですかね？ググると、
Liz Truss’s neoliberal blitz is doomed to fail
Our new prime minister is on a mission. A devotee of the free market, Liz Truss once described Britain as “a nation of Uber-riding, Deliveroo-eating, Airbnb-ing freedom fighters”. But the freedom she really wants is for a select group. It’s those at the very top of society that Truss wants to free from the shackles of tedious regulation and taxes that get in the way of their profits.
Truss is frantically blowing on the embers of neoliberalism. But it is a funeral pyre
Yet Truss says she wants a country with the opposite characteristics: a “lean state”, less “red tape”, less redistribution of wealth and stricter anti-union laws
Has Liz Truss handed power over to the extreme neoliberal thinktanks?
These groups represent the extreme fringe of neoliberalism.
Liz Truss' historical failure gives a final blow to neoliberalism
Truss thought of herself as a new Thatcher. The Iron Lady 2.0.
ネオリベだった、という評価が多い。 ただ、
Tax cuts can be neoliberal but not when they are deployed amid huge twin deficits and an inflation scare.
Neoliberal markets have just demarcated these principles against Liz Truss’s crony libertarianism.
減税はネオリベ的だけど、赤字、インフレのときやるのはネオリベとはいえない、という意見も。むしろ、 縁故リバタリアンだったじゃないか、という意見も。
ーーー岸田首相はネオリベでもリバタリアンでもないので、イギリスの例を日本に単純にスライドできないかもしれないが、トラス政権は日本としては注目すべき前例になっていることはたしか。
１）MMT派は減税、支出拡大を訴えている
２）岸田政権も財源が不確定なまま、防衛費や少子化対策を推進している。
３）民間の日本国債保有者がどう反応するか？
ここらへん、MMT派の議論を聞きたいところ。
指値オペを実施すれば、仮にどんなに国債を売る動きが強まったとしても、日銀がすべて利回り0.25％で買い取ることになるため、事実上長期金利を0.25％に固定し、それ以上に上昇するのをブロックできるというわけです。
日銀が買い取り続けるわけ？
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