plebiscite:今回の「モスクワ」大破についてルトワックが言いそうなこと。
— Okuyama, Masashi ┃奥山真司 (@masatheman) April 14, 2022
「これでロシアの戦力は上がる。余計なアセットを削減できたからだ」
もちろんあくまでも私の想像ですが。
Only 1 exit from the war. Plebiscites within the USSR borders of Donetsk & Lugansk oblasts. Putin can depict this as a victory .Acceptance requires an immediate & total cease-fire & standstill. In 1919 plebiscites stopped the violence in several war-wrecked countries.
— Edward N Luttwak (@ELuttwak) April 12, 2022
In 1919 these and other problems were overcome with simple rules: voters had to show that they were born in the area or lived there before the war. The time limit allowed the return of refugees and demobilized soldiers. Even without today's tech, & much hostility it was done. https://t.co/lhsRuZjsGW
— Edward N Luttwak (@ELuttwak) April 13, 2022
Both sides have already made key concessions to each other Ukraine abjures NATO membership, the Russian Federation withdraws any objections to its European Union membership.Both sides have already made key concessions to each other: Ukraine abjures NATO membership, the Russian Federation withdraws any objections to its European Union membership. Next: a ceasefire/ standstill to allow plebiscites in Donetsk & Luhansk within USSR Oblast boundaries.
— Edward N Luttwak (@ELuttwak) April 13, 2022
Every war must end, and the Ukraine war can only end with the agreement of the elected President of the Russian Federation. To call the present holder of that post a "war criminal", to accuse him of genocide are emotional luxuries disallowed by the exingencies of the situaton
— Edward N Luttwak (@ELuttwak) April 13, 2022
Sanctions without limits add plausibility to the accusation that the West & esp the US and Poland seek the utter ruin of the Russian nation, even its extinction. Enough believers to sustain Putin's authority. Let the families of the dead and wounded put pressure on the Kremlin
— Edward N Luttwak (@ELuttwak) April 14, 2022
Have not heard of any other way of stopping the increasingly destructive war in Ukraine: let Putin achieve the victory of plebiscites in the two contested oblasts, which require a cease fire & standstill to be implemented. Let Ukraine win if the certified inhabitants so decide
— Edward N Luttwak (@ELuttwak) April 14, 2022
Peace leads to war-in peacetime nations and rulers forget the need to preserve deterrence with enough force, and to avoid provoking the more powerful. War leads to peace by mutual exhaustion or one-sided conquest or capitulation. But w nuclear weapons, even the defeated can defeat
— Edward N Luttwak (@ELuttwak) April 15, 2022
Some now say that Putin must be punished as Milosevic was. But P controls nuclear weapons, and the explosion of just one would break the spell of non-use, opening the gates of hell. Plebiscites in Donetsk and Luhansk preceded by total cease fires can end this war; no other exit
— Edward N Luttwak (@ELuttwak) April 16, 2022
Am told that negotiating a cease-fire to prepare plebiscites in the two contested regions is futile: the Russians would use the cease fire to creep foward. Yes, it often happens. But not in this case: all sanctions would be lifted as soon as it starts, securing the cease fire
— Edward N Luttwak (@ELuttwak) April 16, 2022
１）ウクライナとロシアはすでに妥協し始めている
あ）ウクライナはNATO参加しない い）ロシアは ウクライナのEU加盟に文句言わない。
それに加えて
２）ドネツク・ルハンツクでの住民投票以外に戦争終結への道はない。
３）十分な軍事力で抑止したり、大国を刺激しないことを忘れて戦争になり、双方が疲弊したり、一方が他方を征服したり、他方が降伏したりすることで戦争から平和へと移行するが、核兵器があれば、勝敗を逆転できる。
４）停戦交渉してもロシアがズルするから無意味という人がいるが、停戦すればすべての制裁を解除というようにすれば停戦も確保できるのではないか、と。
ーーー日本のツイッター界隈の基準からすれば、政治的妥結などもってのほか、ロシアに甘すぎる、という評価になろうか？
Explainer: Why Russia wants autonomy for occupied Donbas (and why Ukraine doesn’t)
Why isn’t Ukraine happy about this?
Giving the Russian-occupied Donbas a “special status” is seen by many Ukrainians to be a surrender to Russia. This is one of the most unpopular moves any government or presidential administration in Ukraine can make.
According to a February 2020 poll, 62% of Ukrainians oppose enshrining the Donbas’ autonomous status in the Constitution.
Sources: Germany, France ask Zelensky to comply with Russia’s spin of Minsk Agreements
Russia did not rush to withdraw its formations and hardware from Donbas. The Kremlin demands the “special status” and elections before withdrawing from the region, meaning that it could influence the elections.
Ukraine’s parliament had passed a law on special status for the occupied territories back in 2015. The law is also designed to grant some autonomy to the region, but only after Ukraine re-establishes control over the Russian-occupied territories. Ukraine has prolonged the law every year since then.
被害を最小限に食い止められればいいが・・・なかなか難しそうだね。
ただ、
I hear that Kiev might not accept a cease-fire. But no country that depends on gifted weapons is independent. A cease-fire and stand-still are needed to organize plebiscites in Donetsk and Luhanks. Russian good behavior can be assured by lifting all sanctions easily reinposed
— Edward N Luttwak (@ELuttwak) April 15, 2022
no country that depends on gifted weapons is independent
武器を提供している国々が説得すればキエフも動くかもしれない。
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