”no sensible discussions of escalation risks are possible if even raising them is denounced as pro-R and ant-U.”

 

2/ Shouldn’t key lesson of R mil problems in UKR be that EUR (GDP 5X R’s, more advanced tech base & many def industries) has ample means to defend itself? Problem:not lack of resources but lack of political will. Eg: the sorry state of German army. This in EUR’s richest country.

— Rajan Menon (@rajan_menon_) April 30, 2022

Shouldn’t key lesson of R mil problems in UKR be that EUR (GDP 5X R’s, more advanced tech base & many def industries) has ample means to defend itself?

 

TO PREVENT WAR AND SECURE UKRAINE, MAKE UKRAINE NEUTRAL

KEY POINTS

The U.S.-NATO-Russia-Ukraine crisis could be resolved by a grand bargain among the parties that defines Ukraine as a neutral state.

Ukraine is not worth a costly confrontation for the U.S. Hence, U.S. leaders should be open to compromise. If compromise proves elusive, the U.S. should not pay high costs or run large risks to impose a deal on its terms, as it has higher priorities at home and elsewhere.

 

R warnings re West’s arms flow to U and expanded war aims are increasing. Many insist R is bluffing. Certainly possible. But downsides of their being wrong are huge.Yet no sensible discussions of escalation risks are possible if even raising them is denounced as pro-R and ant-U.

— Rajan Menon (@rajan_menon_) April 28, 2022

Yet no sensible discussions of escalation risks are possible if even raising them is denounced as pro-R and ant-U.

Nuclear Fears Intensify As Ukraine War Builds. What Is Putin's Threshold?

BY FRED GUTERL ON 3/6/22 AT 5:00 AM EST

"If the Russian campaign starts to feel like it's a military catastrophe, that's where escalation to nuclear weapons comes into play," says Barry Posen, Ford International Professor of Political Science at MIT

実にまともな議論だね。

　ロシアによる侵攻があった以上、武器供与してウクライナ支援するのは正当だ。しかし、エスカレートしないように注意しつつ、なるべく早い段階での交渉の道はとっておくべき。それは、チョムスキーやタッカーカールソンが言っていることでもあるが、なぜかそれが親露的としてバッシングされる風潮もおかしい。ミアシャイマーらリアリストたちまで親露派にされるとすれば、西側の世論の空気はかなり異常ということだ。

　ウクライナの損害を少なくし、また、ウクライナ戦争にまわる資源を対中国に回すことができるような政治的妥結を促すべきだ。