it's hard to believe the Prime Minister netanyahu's Prime ministership for lack of a better phrase or word can survive this yeah I think it's analogous to the 1973 War when golden Mayer was the Prime Minister of Israel uh and Israel was surprised then as it has been surprised now and golden Myer survived in the short term because what happens in the short term is you have a rally around the flag effect and 03:20 and she benefited benefited from that back then and netanyahu's benefiting from that now but once this settles down and comes to something of an end uh then there will be recriminations and it is as you say hard to imagine that Netanyahu survives this
ネタニヤフは短期的は支持を得ても長期的には生き残ることはできない。
I think the Israelis had the wrong conception in
05:20
their heads about what the Palestinians attacking out of Gaza could do to them and this is why they were so completely surprised
so in a very important way Israel has been willing to live with Hamas right and this is the reason they didn't view Hamas is that great a threat because to some extent to some limited extent again we have to choose our words carefully here Hamas
07:15
was a partner with Israel in undermining the Palestinian Authority which was interested in a two-state solution
it's quite clear that Hamas controls the Gaza Strip they govern the Gaza Strip and that uh the Palestinian Authority uh controls uh the West Bank
エジプトが警告したというが、ハマスから攻撃がくることはイスラエルもわかっていた。しかし、このような形で襲来があるとは予想できていなかった。
ハマスがガザを支配し、自治政府が西岸地区を支配している。
ハマスは過激で、ハマスが権力を握る限り２カ国共存政策は実現しないので、２カ国共存政策反対のネタニエフには好都合だった。
Putinの動画
we can see a sharp deterioration of the situation in the Middle East I think that many will agree with me that this is a clear
14:00
example of the failure of the policy of the United States in the Middle East which tried to monopolize the resolution of the conflict but unfortunately wasn't concerned with finding compromises acceptable to both sides on the contrary it promoted its own ideas about how this should be done put pressure on both sides first on one side then on the other every time without taking into account the fundamental interests of the Palestinian people bearing in mind first of all the need to implement the UN Security Council decision on creation of
14:34
an independent Sovereign Palestinian state
is he right ？
yes
uh I think that what Putin is saying is something that many Americans and many Israelis have been saying for a long time that the only way out of this mess is the two-state solution and that means the Palestinians have to have their own State and Gaza the West Bank and East Jerusalem and it has to live side by side in peace with Israel the United States has been theoretically interested in a two-state solution for a long time because most American policy
15:14
makers and this certainly includes people like Jimmy Carter George HW Bush George W bush Barack Obama understood the importance of getting a two-state solution but they were unwilling to push hard enough to coerce the Israeli leadership into accepting a two-state solution and this is in large part because of domestic politics in the United States pro-israel forces in the United States were opposed to putting pressure on Israel and this includes many people who thought a two-state solution was the right outcome but they
15:49
just want to they just did not want us coercing Israel so I think what Putin is saying and again it's not just Putin this is a commonplace argument in inside Israel and inside the United States is that was the ne it was necessary for Israel's good and for America's good for us to get tough with Israel and push for a two-state solution because the alternative Andrew is that you end up with a greater Israel which is what you have now and you want to remember that there are over 7 million Palestinians
16:22
inside greater Israel
２カ国共存の解決を推進できなかったのはプーチンのいうようにアメリカのせい。
カーターブッシュ、オバマなどアメリカの大統領もそれはわかっていたがイスラエルロビーが強いのでイスラエルを説得できなかった。
話変わってウクライナ
is Ukraine finished ？
yeah
I think that uh I think that Admiral Kirby's comments that uh we are not going to continue funding Ukraine uh for the long term basically
17:05
means uh that they're finished I mean is everybody understands if we pull the plug on the ukrainians they're doomed
we're we're coming near to the end of the Rope me this is truly a remarkable and astonishing statement from him we're coming near to the end of the rope in light of the number of times that he the Secretary of State the National Security advisor and the president himself have used that phrase that the
questioner.19:19
asked about for as long as it takes it actually kind of turns your stomach to see this I mean as I've argued from the beginning and I know you agree with me we've led the ukrainians down the Primrose path yes absolutely horrible I mean we pushed this country into this war we're principally responsible for it because of our efforts to make Ukraine a Western bwar on Russia's borders uh and we encouraged the counter offensive we forced them to attack week after week when they were suffering enormous casualties and now
19:54
when they're in really deep trouble we're pulling the plug on them uh it's just it turns your stomach it's really horrible
my sense uh is that they would be better off cutting a deal now they're not going to get a good deal this is a disaster for the ukrainians uh but given the situation they're in it's almost impossible possible maybe it is impossible to tell a story that has a happy ending for them
ウクライナの運も尽きた。アメリカは支援を切り上げる、と言っている。アメリカの支援がなければ、ウクライナも終わり。ウクライナの今の状況にしたのはアメリカなのに、ここまできて切り上げるとは、見るに忍び難い。ウクライナはいまのうちに政治的妥結したほうがいいが、それもむずかしいだろう、と
再び、ガザ問題
I think this is very hard to predict because a lot depends on whether the Israelis go into Gaza with ground forces there's been a lot of talk about them going into Gaza and tearing the place apart finding Hamas and eradicating Hamas but I think the Israelis this is just a guess but I think the Israelis have come to realize that this is not a smart idea that going into Gaza and trying to eliminate um Hamas will cause more trouble than it's worth and then at the end even if you were to eradicate Hamas you'll just get
23:04
a new radicalized group in its place you're not going to solve the problem with military force this is a political problem so one question is do they go in or do they not go in but they're in a damned if you do damned if you don't situation because if they don't go in Hamas lives to fight another day for sure and they're well-armed and they're going to continue to cause problems uh then if they don't go in they bomb uh Gaza but this is a total disaster not only because from a human point of view from a human rights
23:39
point of view just seeing civilians killed is an absolutely horrible thing but also it does no good strategically it doesn't solve the problem it just enrages people inside the Palestinian world inside the Arab world and it even loses Support over time for Israel in the west so bombing is no solution either so the Israelis are really between Iraq and a hard place I don't know what they do to fix the problem and this gets back to my earlier point that the solution to this was a two-state solution
I would advise not to go into uh Gaza uh and I would tell him that what he ought to do and what his colleagues ought to do is reverse gear and uh or reverse Direction and move towards a two-state solution but he's never going to accept
24:53
that
even if he were willing to listen to me which he wouldn't be he couldn't execute it
25:28
because the politics inside Israel no longer facilitate a two-state solution that train has left the station
地上軍が侵攻してハマスを殲滅しても、他の過激派が誕生するだけ、侵攻しなければ、ハマスが残る。進んでもだめ、退いても駄目な状況。地上軍を侵攻させないで、空龍を続ければ、民間人に多大な犠牲がでて、パレスチナ、アラブの怒りを増幅して、西洋からの支持も得られなくなる。
本来２カ国共存の解決が一番いいのだが、イスラエルの国内政治がもはやそれを許さない。
ーーーおれに言わせればアメリカが強引にもでも２カ国解決を推進すべきだったし、いまからでもそっちに舵を切るべき。
ウクライナ問題も残酷・・・・結局橋下さんが言っていたように早いところ政治的妥結したほうが犠牲は少なかった。
日本のIR学者にリアリストが少ないのは驚きと失望だったね。
翻って、日本についていえば、アメリカからトマホーク買うのもいいが、日本はとにかく自主防衛できる比率をあげていかないと駄目。
原発搭載の原子力潜水艦だな。
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